Good luck with the epistomological questions, Siri-chan. source: siricrazy.com

The second thing pundits exclaimed about Siri, the voice-controlled search bot on iPhone 4s, was that it poses a real threat to Google’s business model, and puts Apple as the company that could possibly unseat the Emperor. (the first thing everyone said was “Squee! New Apple thingy!”)

Pish-posh.  Apple’s Siri is no more threat to Google as the iPhone itself, a Kinect, or a new keyboard.  Siri is an input device, that’s it.  Yes, it’s “smarter” than just a keyboard, and possibly more nuanced than a Kinect, but it’s still an interface point.  “Ah!” they say, “Siri doesn’t pull from Google results, only Wikipedia, Wolfram Alpha, and Yelp“, and therein lies the perceived threat to Google.  This is premature, and backwards.  Those sources for Siri are all curated (I don’t like how that word is starting to get overused, but it’s accurate here) query results.  Wikipedia, WA, and Yelp have all been personally tuned in to the “correct” result by some crowd or learned scholars or something.  Google is just spitting up whatever it’s robots think is a best fit.  Siri, as a product of Apple’s obsessive devotion to quality, would only want to touch curated sources.  Fair enough.

That misses the point, however.  There’s nothing stopping Google from introducing some sort of curation process.  They certainly have the data to start something– they just need the editors to straighten things out for them.  I would submit that Google hasn’t been successful in this crowdsourcing recruitment because either: (a) they haven’t felt the need because their robots were smart enough, or (b) crowds wouldn’t feel to jazzed up about helping a company with a stock price of over $600/share.  For point (a) Siri now shows them that there may be a need to introduce humans alongside the robots.  For point (b) Google could easily part with some of all that GoogleAd money to an army of curators through some sort of affiliate micropayment scheme.  Think DMOZ, but now actually getting paid for all those slavish hours you devoted to sorting out Land of the Lost episodes.

As those data improves those results, why wouldn’t Siri start including Google in her decision-making?  Siri is not a threat to Google– she’s just a bit of a reminder they need a new suit and tie while she patiently waits for them.  Eventually, Siri will need Google just as much as the rest of us.

FULL DISCLOSURE: I own, like, 50 shares of GOOG, or something, so I’m rolling in money.

Yahoo, you know I love you...

Yahoo! is in play, again.  Microsoft has been rumored to renew it’s offer, Google may be lurking around, and Alibaba, the China ecommerce marketplace / payment method / sourcing B2B giant, has also been very public about it’s wanting to buy Yahoo!.  In my opinion, Alibaba may offer the best path forward for Yahoo.  My take on the reasons why:

Microsoft – Meh. Microsoft has been desperate to get something to counteract Google’s rise.  As the world moves ever closer to full-cloud operations, the desktop apps become more and more irrelevant.  Yes, people will be using Outlook and MSWord for years to come, but that’s just inertia, it’s not growth.  Bing was a good shot, but it’s still getting 3rd place behind Google and Yahoo for keyword buys from companies.  If MS could acquire Yahoo, they would increase their share of keyword revenue, and might get enough core revenue to start making something.  However, this doesn’t really do anything for Yahoo– it just gets them bought out and assimilated into Redmond.  Meh.

Google – Nope. I doubt the Federales would allow this one: Google already controls possibly 80% of the online advertising revenue out there– if they bought Yahoo, that share could surge up to 90%.  Monopoly (funny how companies are getting to that status faster and faster…).  Here again, Yahoo would just become a brand within Google, and probably quietly left to ebb away into nothing as users were migrated over to GMail, G+, and Google Apps.

Alibaba – Interesting. Yahoo already owns 46% of Alibaba.  There’s a certain I Ching symmetry/irony that could come if Alibaba were to buy out their own “father”.  If Alibaba were to get Yahoo, it would give them a solid beachhead to take all their platforms developed in China to bring to international markets: Tmall, Taobao, Alipay, and Alibaba B2B would gain a US-based staff and org in one fell swoop.  But the important piece that Jerry Yang should consider, IMHO, is how Yahoo! might survive and grow into something sustainable: Yahoo! would likely disappear inside Microsoft or Google, but it stands a good chance of staying on– and perhaps thriving– as a branded portal inside the Alibaba group: as a company, Jack Ma (CEO of Alibaba) tends to segment out new markets, pour money in as needed, and then interconnect companies as much as possible.  Yahoo! enjoys strong portal loyalty with its users.  It’s a decent news aggregator for people, it’s got a kick-ass web mail client (Zimbra).  With all of these, Alibaba could suddenly gain a portal face for it’s considerable marketplace engine in Tmall and Taobao, as well as an ability to link Alipay’s payment services for micropayment content delivery as ipads and tablets push more and more rich content behind paid firewalls.

The All Seeing Eye

Jeff Bezos Sees All! (From illuminatiwiki)

Rob Malda (aka CmdrTaco) recently posted his skepticism over the Amazon Tablet because of its Silk web browser.  His quick (and insightful) analysis zeros in on the way that the Silk browser functions as a direct window to the Amazon Cloud.  Silk isn’t actually downloading all those webpages, it’s showing you a proxy of every webpage that exists over on the Amazon proxy servers.  So what?

It’s not done for speed, as Rob points out, any CPU on the market holds its own for speed.  It’s not to save bandwidth– there’s no 3G on the tablet, just WiFi (where packets are “free”).  Here’s the speculation: Amazon wants to control (and track) all those packets.  Essentially, Amazon is parking a set of eyeballs over your shoulder and seeing exactly which webpages you look at, how long you look at them, and what you do on them.  So what?

Because this is the Holy Grail for targeted advertising, that’s what.  If Amazon knows that you spend all your time looking at motorcycle bits or frilly dresses or garden equipment, or biker dudes wearing frilly dresses holding garden equipment, then guess what you’ll see next time you click on the Amazon store that is ever so conveniently at your fingertips now.

Amazon is going Google one better: Google knows what you like, and serves up the appropriate advertisement and search results.  Amazon is now taking you one step closer: not only can they show you what you like, they actually have some shit for sale, and all you have to do is “one click”.

sabrina2.jpg
LinkedIn CEO Jeff Weiner has gone on the record thinking that Google+ may start to crowd the field, and that social networks are approaching a zero-sum game: people really only have so much discretionary time, and they’re not going to “add” another network unless they start diminishing another.

I agree.  However, LinkedIn may not like where things wind up.

We all seem to understand that LinkedIn was the serious older brother to Facebook.  LinkedIn carried your full CV and business contacts, while Facebook had your college buddies and pictures of body parts usually wrapped in cotton.  LinkedIn allowed us to form groups and networks for the various facets of our careers, while Facebook let us to simply ‘hang out’.  Unfortunately, LinkedIn may have overplayed its hand: the groups were so loose, the email notifications so prevalent, and the questions so inane, that I just don’t read them anymore.  LinkedIn has a Spam problem: when every possible service vendor out there can figure out that I’m a stakeholder and decision-maker, the spam goes way up.  When service vendors start to troll questions in the groups just to get possible sales leads, the spam goes way up.

Let’s face it: if anyone spends serious time on LinkedIn, it’s likely because they’re in between jobs or trolling for a new job.  That means they’ve got a lot of time on their hands, and likely aren’t on their game as much as they should.  As a result, the discussion topics come across a bit stale, a bit desperate, a bit pumped up.  In short, quality of content suffers.  LinkedIn discussion groups are like soup in a hotel buffet line: looks good, but you have no idea what’s in there, or who’s been putting their spoon in that.

Google+, on the other hand, got the privacy part correct: people can add me all day long (and I’m already starting to see the vendors showing up when they add me to their circles), but it’s up to me whom I add.  In other words, I get to choose who sees the content I publish, and I get to choose who’s content I see.  This is the big difference that G+ learned from Twitter, and it’s just the right amount of inoculation that LinkedIn doesn’t have.

So, Weiner’s correct: my time is limited.  I want professional updates from my peers and people I admire in the business.  I want to connect with them professionally.  But guess what, it likely won’t be on LinkedIn anymore…

It's all part of a cosmic unconsciousness.

All of the techno “stars” came out in that first 24 hours of Google+.  There was Joi Itoh, Robert Scoble, Seth Godin, Harry Joiner, etc.  Most of them seemed to keep it cool, poking around and commenting here and there.  One of them charged ahead, posting something every 5 minutes, often with some half-baiting question that subsequently invoked a huge chain of follow-on comments.   Because of the way that Google+ is structured, these posts came in real-time, and the page text would automatically scroll down.  It made things very difficult to follow anything else.  In short, we had a blabbermouth on our hands.

This person acknowledged that he was being a blabbermouth, and simply invited people to add him to a “blabbermouths” circle in order to clean up their feed.  Done, and done.  Ah, much better.

Soon after, I found other blabbermouths.  These were people that I had considered “friends” at first (and placed them accordingly), but when their posts came in too often, too self-promotional, and too meta, into the “blabbermouths” they went.  It’s like a garden with weeds, or a party with loud drunks, or a restaurant buffet with someone bogarting all the shrimp cocktail: you’re ruining it for the rest of us.

Tangentially, I went to Klout for the firsts time a couple weeks ago.  From what I can tell (and please let me know if I’m missing something), it’s just a “score”, with the supposed goal of getting a higher score– some sort of substitute for social influence, I guess.  Klout seems to be struggling for legitimacy, but maybe I’m just not seeing it.  I do see one helpful thing they announced this morning: Klout will now count Foursquare check-ins as part of the score.

Excellent.  Here’s why: In my mind, there are two types of online social interaction.

  1. Group-Centric Social Media– is collaborative, centered on contribution to a whole, and serves the overall group. Examples include wikipedia, quora, flickr, instagram, turntable, or any other social network where people’s contributions are shared freely and allow others to manipulate, build, alter or improve as they see fit.  Facebook and g+ likely qualify here, as any contribution by a single individual goes out to all their friends, who can then comment (improve knowledge or clarify a point) as they see fit.  No one is keeping “score” publicly.  Twitter may be in this group, but maybe not.
  2. Self-Centric Social Media– is promotional, centered on contribution to a personal record, and is centered on the self.  Examples include Foursquare, klout, and farmville.  The goals in these are to achieve a higher “score”, a wider farm, or a bunch of badges (that are really just little digital icons, Yeaaay!).  All of these are centered around gratifying the specific user, not the collective whole.  Twitter is in this group if you’re obsessed with number of followers or if you think you’re “promoting” something, and not “sharing” something.

Before you go labeling me a communist, hear me out: I’m not saying one is better than the other (okay, maybe a little bit).  What I’m trying to say is that it seems to me that the users who are rooted firmly in the self-centric models seem to be the ones that end up being the blabbermouths in the group-centric networks.  These are the ones that we tend to turn off, to unfriend, or to relegate to our ‘blabbermouths’ circle.  I welcome Klout now counting foursquare checkins.  If I could only figure out a way to get a script that would automatically filter those high klout score people into my blabbermouth circle.

Google 2011

A little something I put together with the help of 2112.net

We are the priests of the Temple of Syrinx
Our great computers filled these Hallowed Halls

Four and a half years ago, I posited that there would be an ever-growing demand for storage within ecommerce companies: customer data, product data, transaction data, then all the generated data that would come from combining any of those three major sectors together.  In the end, I figured that it wasn’t about the amount of information as it was about the ability to combine and synthesize some sort of conclusion or direction out of that mind-numbingly large amount of data.

Boy, I didn’t even see a sliver of what’s really out there now.  At the time, I didn’t see any of the social graph information, background automatic information (e.g. weather, geospatial, temporal data inputs) or additional strata that have swelled into existence in the last few years.  Yet, I still stand by my thesis: it’s not about the amount of information, it’s about one’s ability to draw a direction. Even with the best BI tools commercially available (and I’ve always found them little more than glorified SQL query generators), we don’t get very far.

Enter Google+.

Google already knew our surfing habits, and by most common estimates controls around 75% of the search market and a strong slice of the affiliate market, which means that it roughly controls 75% of the online marketing economy.  Google was further grabbing eyeball time with Youtube and other acquisitions, as well as in-house projects like GMail, Google News, Google Docs, and Android.  The question remains: Is Google able to synthesize all of these data points together and form a psychographic of 1 for Dave Jenkins that is so highly tuned and accurate that the conversion rate for advertisers soars through the roof?

I don’t know, but maybe.  Maybe they’ve made some progress, and maybe Google+ is a big step forward in that unification methodology: now I am willingly handing over profile information with my links, +1s, social graph connections, and naming my circles.

All of that raises a more nuanced and important question: Do I care?  The paranoid subhumans Troskyite in me screams out that “Hell YES I care!  Stop tracking me!”  But I simultaneously cannot ignore the wistful dreamlike convenience that a perfect advertising profile could bring: only show me adverts for things I care about or should care about; stop wasting my time with suggestions that I listen to the new Katy Perry song but continue to suggest the Beyonce one because it knows  I think she’s just that damn sexy; Improve the overall marketing efficiency for every online marketer, thus improving the overall efficiency of the economy by a few billion dollars.  Yes, everyone wins, especially Google.

I don’t think they’re there yet, but I do know that Google+ is a big step forward toward the Singularity of Online, and I can bet (guess? hope?) that they’ve got a Db cluster named “Syrinx” in the Googleplex somewhere, if only for the sense of irony.

Sometime in the late 90’s, I ran an Internet development and design studio.  It was the go-go days, where everyone insisted their idea was highly confidential and stoopid amounts of money were being made by migrating companies on to “The Internet” (yes, we actually capitalized it back in the day, and put quotes around it as some sort of foreign object or artificial theoretical construct).  A lot of our potential clients had AOL email addresses, or kept talking in AOL terminology.  One day, I expressed my frustration with these rubes and disparaged AOL to my business partner.  “Feh.  AOL.  Rubes!” I said.

“Ah, are you sure you want them to move from AOL to the Internet?”, my wiser and more thoughtful friend asked.  “Think about it,” he continued, “Do you really want those nimrods asking their nimrod questions on our forums and message boards and all that?”

From an immediate revenue concern, as a design studio owner, yes, I did want them to move over.  I made money moving them over.  On a personal level, as an early-adoptor-techno-snob, no I didn’t want them on my precious Internet.  I am sure the geeks rued the day when ARPANET was opened up to idiots like me (without a comp sci background).

Why am I telling you this?  Because last night, I experienced that blissful Virginia Empty Continent wonder for a few hours.  Google+ went live yesterday, and invitations were limited.  I was one of the chosen select, even before Ashton Kuchter got in.  From what I could tell, there were only a few thousand of us (besides Googlers).  The wonderment and excitement was tangible.  It still is.

Many of my friends have been begging me for invites.  I’ll get them out as soon as I can.  But be warned, you may not want to come over.  In fact, I recommend you don’t come over:

  • There are no games like Farmville or Mafia Wars or anything else with little avatars sporting huge heads and anime eyes
  • There are no corporate pages from Chrysler Motors or Budweiser or Dave & Busters or Touchstone Pictures
  • Your high school friends aren’t there (yet).  G+ won’t suggest people you know, it will only tell you whom you already know (your GMail contacts).
  • There aren’t any lengthy threads debating whether Dancing with the Idols was better than You’ve Got Stars last night.

You really want to stay on Facebook, I promise.  It’s nice and comfy, right?  All your friends are already there, right?  Change is painful, right?  You won’t be able to import your WoW or Zynga character profiles, so why bother, right?

No, G+ isn’t for you.  It’s full of geeks and all texty and complicated.

Yeah, this is pretty much sums it up.

My friend at Google hooked me up with an early invitation to Google+, the new social networking interface from They Who Do No Evil.  So far, I like it, if only for the possible catharsis it offers me for starting over on whom I invite/include in my circle of friends.  I don’t know enough about the nuances yet to give a full-blown analysis, and the population isn’t wide enough for me to see many of my friends yet, but here’s what I’ve got so far:

  • Google+ already knows most of the people I deal with.  It has all the email addresses from my GMail account, so that makes sense.
  • The first thing I was prompted to do was add all my contacts into “circles”: friends, family, etc.  I could make up my own circles, also: Mishifts, SLC Punks, Tokyo.
  • Google already has my photo albums on Picasa, and taps in directly to those.  The result of this is that the photo quality seems to be quite a bit better than what we are getting on Facebook.
  • Google+ wants me to create “hang outs”, which are essentially open threads/chats/webcams.  This seems to be the most direct successor to Google Buzz, and perhaps the surviving nephew of Google Wave.  I don’t see any hangouts yet, so we’ll see.
  • I can “follow” people that I’ve never met, but are in the system: Robert Scoble, Randall Munroe, Matt Cutts.

That last point may be the most killer point here: Google can quickly subsume Facebook (the interface is almost identical), but then move beyond Facebook’s fatal flaw: Facebook was a response to the aliased teen anarchy of MySpace, and succeeded because of the strict requirement that you had to certifiably know everyone of your contacts.  Twitter grew up because it allowed a one-way gate of communication where I could “follow” people but they didn’t have to follow me back.  This works well for rock stars and stand up comics,  politicians, not so muchGoogle+ now offers a big step forward: one common place where I can do all that facebook sharing thing with my friends, follow rock stars (like twitter), and chat/interact in real-time like I was supposed to do with Google Wave.

Prediction: Google+ may actually have drawn a winner this time, and Facebook’s $100B valuation is about to take a big kick in the nads.  Twitter, you’re going to take a hit as well.

FTC says search engine alliance doesn’t breach anti-monopoly law
Google owns the search engine market in North America and most of the English-speaking world.  It’s strong on the continent of Europe.  Here in Japan, however, it’s still second (and spaced back a ways) to Yahoo Japan (note: Yahoo Japan is a separate organization from Yahoo US, although they started out together).  In PRC China, Google is getting strangled by Baidu and the CCP– but that’s another day’s story.

I’ve always marveled at Yahoo Japan’s ability to stay on top of the game.  I’ve noticed most Japanese use Yahoo for their homepage, and the mix of news, sports, weather and search make a nice jumping off place (standard portal stuff).  Culturally, I can only guess as to why this is the case:

  • Did the Japanese embrace the web right at the peak of Yahoo’s power, who simply lucked into first place?
  • Do Japanese prefer clicking through to finding something instead of text searching for it?  (yes)
  • Did the blank white abyss of Google’s homepage just not gel with the Japanese? (likely– behold the Japanese hatred of whitespace in advertising sometime)
  • Did Japanese cell-phone internet access initially skew them toward Yahoo? (also yes– it’s been called the “galapogos effect“)

One other smart play that Yahoo Japan did a long time ago was to launch Yahoo BB, a broadband service launched in 2001 by the communications pioneer Son Masayoshi.  This likely cemented the brand for many Japanese.  Just as the Internet meant AOL for many Americans in the mid- to late-90s, the Internet meant Yahoo for Japanese quickly adopting broadband.

But what happens when the dominant portal cannot get a quality search engine from the US partner anymore?  Develop one in-house?  [That's what the Chinese are trying-- and it's an expensive venture, made possible only by the cheap labour and lavish government funding provided by Beijing.]  No, too expensive.  It’s better to go shopping, but which engine to get?

The Google search engine is the clear leader– everyone knows that (even Japanese users– they simply stay on Yahoo because it’s their default homepage).  The Bing engine may have been a better deal, but likely came with too many strings attached.  Overall, IMHO, this deal seems to be a good idea for both partners: Yahoo gets a quality search engine and can continue to concentrate on it’s portal offerings (news, email, shopping, etc.), while Google finally gets enough penetration in the AdWords market here.

We’ve all heard that Google is abandoning development of Google Wave.  From what I know of my developer friends, however, it made a decent remote office co-development collaboration tool.  Will Google do the Right Thing and give it to us in Open Source form?

Doh.  This is not long enough for a blog post.  Too long for a tweet.  I should edit.

© 2010 Dave Jenkins contact me via twitter @davejenk1ns or via email blog at davejenkins dot com Suffusion WordPress theme by Sayontan Sinha