Cocktail party by Mike Jones

When you’re at the pub, what do you talk about?  Your car? Your weekend?  Your golf game?  Your new tasty favorite indie band?  FSM help you if you talk about work– boring.  When you’re online, what do you chat/write/blog/tweet about?  Sure, we geeks talk about the biz and tools and sites and Steve Jobs gossip– but that’s part of our job.  If it really were free time, what would you really write about?  And where would you write it?

Watching the online online communities mature, I’ve noticed that people progress along a path:

  • First, they blabber anything just for the sake of blabbering.  This is really just experimenting with the toolset for most.
  • Second, they share everything they see and read and link, until they realize that everyone else is linking/sharing the exact same stuff.
  • Third, people settle into their “thing”: constant updates of their children, their home business, political rants, mindless blogospam.  Here’s where people’s idiosyncrasies start to show up.  To quote John Worfin, “Character is what you are in the dark.”
  • Eventually, people resort to the same topics they like in the pub: politics, their children’s sports, luxury vacations, and making up historical  facts.

That covers Facebook and twitter for most people (twitter is more gossip-y, but whatever).  But what about an online community based on a catalog ecommerce site, or a specifically-themed site?  The one thing all the visitors to that site is the stuff that’s for sale, so this becomes the dominant topic for the online community.  At some sites, this works, other sites bomb miserably.  Why?  What is the difference?  Where is that line?

Likely:

  • Woot.com – wins because all visitors are bargain hunters, and are happy to share juicy details on the deals.  We see this in real life where people brag about the coupons they clipped or the steals they got at Try-n-Save.
  • SteapandCheap.com – wins because of the same reasons that woot.com wins, but even better because these people all share a leisure activity: they ski (or snowboard or hike… er… they go outdoors)
  • Any catalog that is basically a technical sale: consumer electronics, exercise equipment, software, new cars, gardening tools.  If you think you’re the neighborhood expert, congratulations on becoming the new King of the Online Community.  Online dashboards are great for this.
  • Politico.com – wins because all those ranters who alienated their friends on facebook with their hatred of Presi-senato-gressman Blankenstien now have a home where they can win Free Internets with the other crazies (just like the bars in Dupont Circle)  Online dashboards are also great for this, but only to show who is the biggest d-bag.

Not Likely:

  • VictoriasSecret.com – Who wants to brag about their lingerie?  TMI.  Questions & Answers generally wouldn’t work for personal apparel.  The most obvious question “will this fit me?” has the most obvious answer: “I have no idea who you are, so how the hell would I know?”
  • Vehix.com – mostly used cars, which means that deals are not repeatable– it does no use bragging about your good deal, no one cares. The same goes for any one-off item.
  • fandango.com – tickets to movies (which people _do_ discuss at length in pubs), but Fandango is a ticket site– nobody has seen these movies yet, and they certainly don’t want to hear the ending.  BTW, Inception is all inside Leo DeCaprio’s head because he’s insane!!

So, will your website be able to build a community successfully?  Will you really be able to plug it back in to increased user-generated content about your products?  I would suggest that the ‘tell’ is rather simple: would people talk about your goods in a pub?  Would they mention your stuff at a cocktail party?

Meet your new Marketing VP

A couple of days ago I visited the subjective nature of ‘expertise’, and how online community software and social networks are actually exacerbating the relative nature of perceived expertise in any given field. I’d like to continue with a direction where I think the true expertise is developing: it’s all in the numbers.

IBM just bought CoreMetrics. Adobe bought Omniture. The job boards for quantitative analysts are a mile long. Why is this? My take is that the culture of hyperanalysis and sweating over every small trackable bit of behaviour that began with successful dotcoms is finally seeping into the larger marketing departments of larger companies. “Marketing” is no longer those guys from Mad Men thinking up new creative copy while sloshing martinis, it’s Anthony Edwards from Revenge of the Nerds now telling you the exact percentages of retention you’ll need from exact zip codes using precisely worded tweets (the text of which was likely written by a robot algorithm).

But let’s be clear– this isn’t a race to hoard data. This isn’t a contest to see who can lumber through the largest spreadsheets. The data is everywhere, many times for free (thank Google). The real expert is the person with enough classical logic training, statistical classes, and– most importantly– the ability to write well enough to convey a coherent story that explains all the minutiae into some sort of actionable plan. (there’s hope for all those philosophy majors after all).

Forrester Wave for ecommerce suites

Relative Goodness

Forrester Research understands this well. They’ve acknowledged the subjective nature of expertise in their data sets: all software rankings and application analyses are based on executive surveys. They figure that if they ask enough questions of enough executives they can get some relevant (subjective as it is) data points from which to present a decent story. Notice that Forrester rarely draws conclusions– they simply present enough data and a nice set of graphics that you can draw your own subjective conclusion. Forrester even gives you the source spreadsheet so you can monkey with the variables and draw your own story. Their success, I believe, is in the strength of their storytelling abilities and presentation skills.

Who is the expert? The person that can divine a coherent direction out of a sea of numbers, that’s who. If Edwards can comb his hair and write well, he’s got the job.

© 2010 Dave Jenkins contact me via twitter @davejenk1ns or via email blog at davejenkins dot com Suffusion WordPress theme by Sayontan Sinha