Meet your new Marketing VP

A couple of days ago I visited the subjective nature of ‘expertise’, and how online community software and social networks are actually exacerbating the relative nature of perceived expertise in any given field. I’d like to continue with a direction where I think the true expertise is developing: it’s all in the numbers.

IBM just bought CoreMetrics. Adobe bought Omniture. The job boards for quantitative analysts are a mile long. Why is this? My take is that the culture of hyperanalysis and sweating over every small trackable bit of behaviour that began with successful dotcoms is finally seeping into the larger marketing departments of larger companies. “Marketing” is no longer those guys from Mad Men thinking up new creative copy while sloshing martinis, it’s Anthony Edwards from Revenge of the Nerds now telling you the exact percentages of retention you’ll need from exact zip codes using precisely worded tweets (the text of which was likely written by a robot algorithm).

But let’s be clear– this isn’t a race to hoard data. This isn’t a contest to see who can lumber through the largest spreadsheets. The data is everywhere, many times for free (thank Google). The real expert is the person with enough classical logic training, statistical classes, and– most importantly– the ability to write well enough to convey a coherent story that explains all the minutiae into some sort of actionable plan. (there’s hope for all those philosophy majors after all).

Forrester Wave for ecommerce suites

Relative Goodness

Forrester Research understands this well. They’ve acknowledged the subjective nature of expertise in their data sets: all software rankings and application analyses are based on executive surveys. They figure that if they ask enough questions of enough executives they can get some relevant (subjective as it is) data points from which to present a decent story. Notice that Forrester rarely draws conclusions– they simply present enough data and a nice set of graphics that you can draw your own subjective conclusion. Forrester even gives you the source spreadsheet so you can monkey with the variables and draw your own story. Their success, I believe, is in the strength of their storytelling abilities and presentation skills.

Who is the expert? The person that can divine a coherent direction out of a sea of numbers, that’s who. If Edwards can comb his hair and write well, he’s got the job.

truer than you think

Times was, I used to be able to spout off any random factiod I thought I knew, and the Internet took it as read truth.  The Wikipedia used to be great for this.  Now, my rants are pretty much limited to the blarg you’re reading right now– we’re probably all better off for it.  Most university professors scowl very deeply if a student references the Wikipedia in a footnote, which is fair, but not for the reasons most people think: Wikipedia is a bad reference source because it’s a derivative work, not because it may be inaccurate:  The student should be citing the original work, not someone’s summarized boilerplate.  Wikipedia has largely squashed the ‘inaccurate’ label through a zealous use and requirement of all statements must have footnotes.

But that raises a conundrum for many of us: where is truth?  Where is the expert?  Is the expert the one with the most experience?  Is the expert the one with the most money?  The most devotees?  Is truth simply the mob’s consensus?  Graduate school told me that truth is the logical sum of a tested thesis.  I spent 15 years being smug that I knew what that meant, only now to really see that when the Internet gave everyone a soapbox from which to preach, now social networks are giving everyone a Hyde’s Park corner complete with audiences.  Companies like bazaarvoice and pluck are setting up these cacophonies wherever possible (good for them).  These systems invariably include meta-rating systems to rate the reviews and the reviewers, in the hopes of crowdsourcing the good information from the bad.  In general, it usually works.  It is still, however, all based on a Kuhn-model of mob truth.

The NYT recently published an article on a new computer named “Watson” designed by IBM to play Jeopardy.  Another possible use they summized might be to find counter-factual statements to anyone’s gtiven declaration on the Internet.  In short: a bullshit detector.  I can imagine they will be able to monetize this thing into millions of dollars: every social network and review thread can now come with a robot that can read plain speech, offer immediate counter-responses to erroneous information, and perhaps even show us a numerical score for ‘trustability’ or ‘truthiness(all the footnotes in that link– irony!). The downside here, of course, is that most reviews for most products will be reduced to little more than the barren subjectivism of American Bandstand: “It’s got a good beat, I can dance to it.”

There is still salvation for quality content in quality reviews: hard numerical data, solid logic, and qualitative feature polarization.  I’ll explain myself on those in some upcoming posts.

communications1.png
Every few years someone re-invents real time chat.   Back in the 70s we had teletypes in the high school computer lab.  Internet purists had IRC to keep themselves entertained in the 1980s, while the early 90 gave us AOL chat rooms for the rest of us poseurs.    Soon, we all had ICQ numbers (I still have mine memorized),  then AIM aliases, which were soon replaced by jabber handles, Google chat IDs, and then came the facebooks.  All shared some basics: real-time typing, conversation windows, text-centric, and just below the speed of verbal communication.  Still, they’re all just variants on the real-time chat, a communication path that’s been around since The Beginning.

If we were to graph a spectrum of communication forms, spreading them out along the x-axis in terms of speed, and y-axis for quality of information, then email would be somewhere to the left and slightly higher than chat: It’s not real-time (you send something, and an answer comes back whenever the other person feels like it), but it can contain pictures and video, so it’s arguably better quality.  Below and to the left, we would have twitter: asynchronus, poor quality (short).  To the right of chat we would telephones (real-time verbal), and above that we would Skype: real-time verbal communication with the bonus of your friend’s beautiful face on your screen.  Skype’s real-time video conferencing should be superior (above and to the right) of all of them, right?
Why do we still have the other forms around?

So, it seems there is room for something that can land in that flexible in-between the safe distance that asynchronous  email gives us, but the conversational flow of chat.  If it were an open platform, people could start grafting on the higher-quality content elements like music and videos and pictures of cats eating cheezburgers.

Enter GoogleWave.  I’ve had it for a little while now, and I see some promise if people understand the construct.  Google is betting that people will want to sometimes be real-time, sometimes not-so-real-time, sometimes lo-fi, sometimes hi-fi.  I bet they’re right.

My GoogleWave ID is tokyodave@googlewave.com.  Hit me up.

mccaskill.jpgWe’re seeing a pattern, in political town halls, industry conferences, and even award shows: the concept of a “panel of experts” at the head of the grand ballroom dispensing wisdom to the masses’ is dead.  I blame mobile phones, but we’ll get to that in a minute.

In August 2009, congressmen and senators scattered out of Washington back to their home districts like so many rats carrying plague.  They had to get Health Care Reform passed, and it was time to bring in the proletariat on the deals they had already been cooking.  The problem is that the prols didn’t play ball.  The quick reaction was to chalk it up to sour grape astro-turfing by the GOP– and once it showed up, I have little doubt they did amplify it wherever possible– but I think that people are just as upset with the Town Hall format as they are with the actual message trying to get preached at them by their “representative”.  Thanks to the internet, the masses are much more connected and have their opinions (right or wrong) much more set before they go to the meeting; thanks to social networks, people now have the baseline expectations to participate in a two-way conversation, not get lectured at and told what to think.  The worst representatives actually yelled at their own constituencies to “shut up and listen“.  Ah, irony.

I saw this same pattern at a recent ecommerce conference in Las Vegas.  Each morning had the usualy Big Name Keynote address which was just as much show-n-tell as it was informative, but then the afternoon sessions consisted of smaller breakout sessions with a small (3-4 people) “panel of experts” sitting at the front of a long ballroom pontificating about some facet of ecommerce chellenges (customer usability, mobile commerce, social networks, etc.).  Here’s the thing– very few people actually listened, I think.  Most people had their heads down checking their email, tweeting out what they were hearing in the meeting, or even tweeting out how they’re not getting anything out of the meeting about how to use Twitter.  Ah, irony.

On the flight home, I downshifted with a Newsweek magazine, and saw an article about the Emmy Awards for TV, and how the awards shows seem increasingly out of touch with the will of the people.  “That makes sense,” I thought to myself: awards shows depend on panels of experts, and that model is becoming increasingly flawed.  Anything that is perceived as a one-way street of information transfer, or has a significant amount of time-lag between the chosen opinion coming down from above and the feedback going back up will lose attention with an increasingly twitchy, real-time community.

So what to do?  Here’s some cheap shots:

  • For political town halls, obviously not everyone can talk, and even then not everyone has a cogent thought, but everyone wants to participate.  What if everyone was handed a chit or poker chip as they came into the room, and each person could either ask their friends for their chips because she wants to speak, or she could hand her poker chip to someone she trusts to voice her opinion.  The microphone would then be ‘auctioned off’ to those with the most poker chips, and passed around as time allowed.
  • For conference meetings, the panels must absolutely integrate real-time tweets, polls, and feedback.  As topics become more tightly defined, the likelihood that smarter people are sitting out in the audience increases.  The poker chips might work here as well.
  • For awards shows– I have no remedy.  They really were just a money-scam from the Big Studio era anyway, it seems, to put butts in seats a second time in November, while allowing actors to negotiate higher salaries because they had won something.  With the social networks, rotten tomatoes, and Mr Dynamite, we all have sufficient information to judge they good films, music, and TV from the dreck.  Those that cannot discern quality content deserve what they get.

hamlet mobileOkay, that was a pretty lame title, but it’s actually the most clear way to express the question: what criteria or elements need to be in place to justify a mobile version of a website?

I was talking with a friend of mine, who recently got the .mobi version of his company’s domain, but hadn’t done anything with it.  He asked for advice, and I offered up the following crude thumbnail that Internet (not web) information can be broken into three main types:

  1. Transactional snippets of information: flight times, restaurant addresses, bank account info, sports scores, short text email, answers to salient questions.  Mobile phones do very well at this– iphone or not– just about everyone with a phone participates in this type of internet transaction.  If you see it that way, the iphone app store really becomes a collection ot targetted info queries all eye-candied up.
  2. Search-centric information: Any business model that centers around the shear number of stuff for sale/rent/download/sharing is really a search-centric model and not a browsing model.  Amazon, zappos, walmart, piratebay, and wikipedia are all search-centric.  So is Yelp.  Notice how all of these operations are either exploiting a mobile strategy fairly well (half-way), or are likely close to one.
  3. Browsing ecommerce information: anything that is a context-rich window-shopping experience doesn’t do well on a mobile phone.  The screen isn’t big enough, and we don’t have the patience to make the Solomon’s decision of either viewing a stripped down version of the site or spend the time endlessly scrolling around to see the website in it’s original layout.  Etsy, Borders magic shelf, Dell, or other ecommerce sites that are inherently dependent on the web-surfing serendipity of the site won’t do well on a mobile phone– at least not without some major rethinking on what works and what doesn’t.

My friend is in an information-sharing business.  He handles sets up relationships between business partners, and brokers deals where he sees possible matches.  His real strength is the depth of information, but he certainly has plenty of small transaction-level updates that would be more valuable if offered in near real-time.  My advice to him was to look through all the activities he does, find those that are in the first bucket, and go with the .mobi version.

pollen danceSo, the Internet is everywhere.  Times was (back in the day), that we used to surf around to websites just to see the design or some cool functionality, but we are no longer enamored with the technology (well, almost).  Futurists no longer spend their time pontificating about capacity, bandwidth, or the extent of data that could be recorded in their great computers– all of that is assumed to be in place.  Rather, these seers spend their time in two activities:

a) Blowing their own horn on twitter — not worth watching

b) Showing insights on the social interaction of the great online hive that has now come into being — these are what I’ll call  “Network Biologists”, and are worth your time.

The network biologist will spend his/her time researching the strange interactions between people, and the even stranger medium that is created as a result.  They are not sociologists, because it is more than the interactions of the humans; there are robots, scripts, and crude AI influencing the mix.  The environment itself is ever changing– and the actors change as a result– but the center of focus has shifted to the behaviour of the fish, not the mechanical workings of the reef: hence the term ‘biologist’.

The usability managers in ecommerce companies were an early manifestation.  Now, everyone in the online marketing department, merchandising, and even finance is trying to ascertain how the huge mass of people will react to the online environment.  This is different from standard “retail science” or “catalog management” because of the constant arms race in online functionality as well as the multiple-variable equation where customers will influence each other in real time, as well as try to get in on the deal with some sort of affiliate, coupon, or recommendation in exchange for a slice of the profits.

The best results so far have been to segment and clasify online users into their various behavioural patterns.  Oddly enough, people don’t mind surrendering them willingly.  The current spate of “what [blank] are you?” viruses circulating on facebook are a segmentation maker’s dream: people are happy to tell us exactly what drives their brightest fears and darkest hopes. The most successful websites out there have tapped into the hive behaviour that humans portray when given just the right mix of anonymity and self-aggrandizement: Google’s page rankings are a canopy of dominant players and ground-dwellers in their shadow; Amazon’s entire merchandising catalog for millions of products is an expansion of fecundity like salmon spawning; Facebook is basic tribalism that proves Dunbar’s number, De.licio.us is our own pollen-finding wiggle dance; twitter is a sea of iridescent jellyfish desperate for attention; there is a flavour of pr0n out there for every strange perversion you could imagine (and a few you don’t want to).

I would imagine that colleges will soon have some sort of degree in Network Biology: it will be a combination of sociology, crowd biology, and basic network mechanics, to show how it is all wired together.

jphone.jpgI am not sure if it is a show of weakness, or just another table-upsetting play by our old friend Son Masayoshi, but Softbank is now offering a Free 8GB iPhone as long as you sign up for the two-year data plan.  We’ve seen this model before: Japan pioneered the ‘free crack pipe’ model almost 10 years ago with game consoles and cell phones.  But as functionality, swiveling screens, and other doohickeys made their way into the small devices, prices started to creep up.  Hardware prices took a real hike as the portable chips made jail breaking the phones an assumption, and as all signal carriers standardized.  (In fact, most electronics stores will transfer your chip into your new phone right there when you buy it.)

But Softbank has two things going for it: 1. jailbreaking the iPhone is possible but not easy, 2. the 3G network is still somewhat proprietary.  With these, Softbank can go back to the market-share giveaways that made them famous.  Earlier, I didn’t see the iPhone taking off so strongly inside the Empire.  Now– maybe we’ve got a real race.  In response, competitors could go either way:

a) Use Android to lower the cost of the hardware (also offer for free), and then use VoIP wherever possible to lower radio costs.  However, this doesn’t work because– believe it or not– open wifi networks are not that common in Tokyo

b) Use Android or another OS platform to out-app the iphone (weak strategy)

If the iPhone can get sufficient marketshare, it will be fascinating to see what unexpected apps the Japanese developer community comes up with.

fish-school.jpgMy good friend has decided to look for a new job.  Today, she brought in some good Mexican food for the crew as a thank you.  It was, however, not a free lunch.  In return for the tacos, we were supposed to go to the white board in the conference room and suggest where she might work next.  For the price of 2 dozen lunches, my friend tried to crowdsource her next job.

Soon enough (if not already), everyone will be connected to everyone else in their immediate market segment.  We’ll all have a Kevin Bacon number of 3 or lower.  Linkedin, which originally provided value as the “inside connection” to a given company or executive, now has become the ubiquitous contact folder for everyone.  Where recruiters used to thrive on Linkedin because it complimented and extended their most valuable asset: their rolodex of contacts, it now threatens to replace that rolodex completely.  The Recruiter still has value, as someone who knows how to interview a candidate and get at the soft chewy center of a person to see if they are a good match for the company with an open position, but not as a simple nexus of resumes in one hand and job openings in another.

Given that Linkedin has given us all that magic rolodex, why not try to crowdsource positions?  How could one simultaneously incent the armchair recruiter in all of us, yet invoke enough friction to keep out the spammers and robots?

Here is my idea:

  1. Vigorously pursue companies to list their open positions on the network
  2. Invite people to recommend people in their network for the open positions, with a standing bounty of 10% of first-year salary (still leaving room for the recruiter doing the actual interviews to make 10-15%)
  3. If Andy is going to recommend Betty to C Corporation, then Andy needs to pay $5 to Betty (she’s the one looking for a job, and probably needs the $5 anyway)
  4. C Company would see that Betty is recommended by 7 of her friends (all willing to stake $5 on it), and therefore she is probably worth a look.  If Betty is hired, the 10% is split amongst the 7 people who recommended her.
  5. Andy just profited $1423 for his work (assuming 10% of $100,000 job, spilt 7 ways, minus the $5)

Hmmm.  This might work.  I should ping Harry or Alex or my old friends at Daijob.

UPDATE: 27 May 2010: Looks like I called it.  http://www.notchup.com/ is almost a perfect match for this business model.

I’ll be in Orlando this next week for the Shop.org Strategy and Innovation Forum.  The noise from vendors is discernibly more quiet, compared to last year.  I am also getting a vibe that not so many people (customers like me) will be attending.  I’ve got some specific people to visit, and some intel to gather on a couple of vendors.  We’ll see.

i’ll be sending updates at @davejenk1ns.

Christians burning Harry Potter books

“Where is the wisdom we have lost in knowledge? Where is the knowledge we have lost in information?” –T.S. Eliot

Many people think back to their juvenile literature classes and remember that Farenheit 451 was a cautionary tale.  They then assume to remember that it’s a cautionary tale against oppressive governments that burn books.  I would proffer that this ‘oppressive fascist regime’ interpretation is a remnant of post-war public school social engineering.  I think that Bradbury might just as much have been lamenting the death of the book as a medium.  The populous of his future dystopia voluntarily stopped reading– preferring abridged versions to formal novels, then pamphlets, and finally, a small steady diet of word-pablum from the government.

I am a few days into Twitter so far, and I am starting to think that we may be one step closer: books became articles several decades ago.  The web shortened those further to summaries, and RSS shortened the news even further.  On a personal level, publishing has exploded; everyone’s an author, a film critic, a technomaven, a pop-diva queen.  However, the publishing medium is getting shorter and shorter.  Back in the day, we had to code our HTML by hand (dammit).  Soon enough, we publi-shit-izens [yes, intentional] realized we could get attention and traffic by simply uploading pictures of our cat, or describing the toast we had that morning.  TypePad made this all too easy.  Blogs got shorter.  Now we’ve come to twitter, and we’re down to a simple 160 characters.  Services now can simply ping each other’s mobile phones and tell you if a friend is within 500 feet (physically).

My money is on the iPhone app that can sense your mood from your body heat and movement while it sits in your pants pocket– and broadcasts out to all your peeps when it judges that you’re likely in heat.

Mind you, I’m not passing judgment one way or the other on this.  It’s not evil or good– the text is just getting progressively shorter.  I am still trying to figure out if it’s because the reader attention-span is getting shorter, or because 99.9% of the masses have anything viable to say beyond 160 characters.  I suspect the latter.

This post took me ten minutes to write.  I still haven’t said jack that has not been said a thousand times previously.  Do you feel smarter now that you’re at the end?  This post was really just a way to get my twitter address out: @davejenk1ns

note: that is a real photo of a real book burning in 2007 New Mexico, United States.  Some Christians think Harry Potter is evil.

© 2010 Dave Jenkins contact me via twitter @davejenk1ns or via email blog at davejenkins dot com Suffusion WordPress theme by Sayontan Sinha