Jon Evans raises a good point over at TechCrunch: the identity wars are over (winner:facebook), and the ‘reputation war’ has begun.  This is a war not of actual reputations, but of online properties that can best establish, facilitate, and most importantly score and compare reputations among so-called “experts”.  Quora is a popular place for this, and it is certainly gaining its fair share of astroturfers who are hoping to inflate their online reputation, but it’s also got a decent line of real experts who are stepping up and answering questions.  I am mildly surprised by the quality of answers.

Continuing on my earlier model of viewing these different social networks as strata (or layers) that  build on top of each other, I would agree with Mr Evans’ point that the identity layer is largely established now, and we are beginning to move up into a new reputation layer.  It’s not enough to simply evaluate someone by the company he/she keeps, it’s now how and where they demonstrate their answers to a barrage of questions.  This used to be what blogs were for, but no one has time to read  those anymore, or at least the format is switching from blowhards like me pushing answers in a blog like this, to answers getting pulled by responding to specific questions from the masses.

Back in the day, we only had our Slashdot scores and loginIDs to go by, but the world quickly moved beyond simple geekery, and that doesn’t hold much wight anymore.  Klout is a naked popularity contest– but on the Internet, what else is there?

wine on the roof

Facebook has announced that it will be adding filters for photos, so people can retro-wash their pics with that synthetic polaroid saturation, or get all poignant with some black and white pics of their kids putting peanut butter on the cat. This is being billed as a direct response to instagram. I would assume it’s positioned as a defense, and the people prefer instagram because of all the filters.

This misses the true point of instagram, IMHO: instragram is cool not only because of the filters (which are fun), but because it boils down the social interaction to just the photo. There’s no goofy update about the kids’ schooling, no mafia wars, no idiot lolcat videos. Just the photos. There’s a certain artsy-like austerity to it, which communicates on a different (deeper?) level for people.

I like instragram because it’s clean, not because people have dorked with the colors on their pics. It’s my own personal gallery walk: quiet, reflective, and ultimately more communicative than words.

sabrina2.jpg
LinkedIn CEO Jeff Weiner has gone on the record thinking that Google+ may start to crowd the field, and that social networks are approaching a zero-sum game: people really only have so much discretionary time, and they’re not going to “add” another network unless they start diminishing another.

I agree.  However, LinkedIn may not like where things wind up.

We all seem to understand that LinkedIn was the serious older brother to Facebook.  LinkedIn carried your full CV and business contacts, while Facebook had your college buddies and pictures of body parts usually wrapped in cotton.  LinkedIn allowed us to form groups and networks for the various facets of our careers, while Facebook let us to simply ‘hang out’.  Unfortunately, LinkedIn may have overplayed its hand: the groups were so loose, the email notifications so prevalent, and the questions so inane, that I just don’t read them anymore.  LinkedIn has a Spam problem: when every possible service vendor out there can figure out that I’m a stakeholder and decision-maker, the spam goes way up.  When service vendors start to troll questions in the groups just to get possible sales leads, the spam goes way up.

Let’s face it: if anyone spends serious time on LinkedIn, it’s likely because they’re in between jobs or trolling for a new job.  That means they’ve got a lot of time on their hands, and likely aren’t on their game as much as they should.  As a result, the discussion topics come across a bit stale, a bit desperate, a bit pumped up.  In short, quality of content suffers.  LinkedIn discussion groups are like soup in a hotel buffet line: looks good, but you have no idea what’s in there, or who’s been putting their spoon in that.

Google+, on the other hand, got the privacy part correct: people can add me all day long (and I’m already starting to see the vendors showing up when they add me to their circles), but it’s up to me whom I add.  In other words, I get to choose who sees the content I publish, and I get to choose who’s content I see.  This is the big difference that G+ learned from Twitter, and it’s just the right amount of inoculation that LinkedIn doesn’t have.

So, Weiner’s correct: my time is limited.  I want professional updates from my peers and people I admire in the business.  I want to connect with them professionally.  But guess what, it likely won’t be on LinkedIn anymore…

It's all part of a cosmic unconsciousness.

All of the techno “stars” came out in that first 24 hours of Google+.  There was Joi Itoh, Robert Scoble, Seth Godin, Harry Joiner, etc.  Most of them seemed to keep it cool, poking around and commenting here and there.  One of them charged ahead, posting something every 5 minutes, often with some half-baiting question that subsequently invoked a huge chain of follow-on comments.   Because of the way that Google+ is structured, these posts came in real-time, and the page text would automatically scroll down.  It made things very difficult to follow anything else.  In short, we had a blabbermouth on our hands.

This person acknowledged that he was being a blabbermouth, and simply invited people to add him to a “blabbermouths” circle in order to clean up their feed.  Done, and done.  Ah, much better.

Soon after, I found other blabbermouths.  These were people that I had considered “friends” at first (and placed them accordingly), but when their posts came in too often, too self-promotional, and too meta, into the “blabbermouths” they went.  It’s like a garden with weeds, or a party with loud drunks, or a restaurant buffet with someone bogarting all the shrimp cocktail: you’re ruining it for the rest of us.

Tangentially, I went to Klout for the firsts time a couple weeks ago.  From what I can tell (and please let me know if I’m missing something), it’s just a “score”, with the supposed goal of getting a higher score– some sort of substitute for social influence, I guess.  Klout seems to be struggling for legitimacy, but maybe I’m just not seeing it.  I do see one helpful thing they announced this morning: Klout will now count Foursquare check-ins as part of the score.

Excellent.  Here’s why: In my mind, there are two types of online social interaction.

  1. Group-Centric Social Media– is collaborative, centered on contribution to a whole, and serves the overall group. Examples include wikipedia, quora, flickr, instagram, turntable, or any other social network where people’s contributions are shared freely and allow others to manipulate, build, alter or improve as they see fit.  Facebook and g+ likely qualify here, as any contribution by a single individual goes out to all their friends, who can then comment (improve knowledge or clarify a point) as they see fit.  No one is keeping “score” publicly.  Twitter may be in this group, but maybe not.
  2. Self-Centric Social Media– is promotional, centered on contribution to a personal record, and is centered on the self.  Examples include Foursquare, klout, and farmville.  The goals in these are to achieve a higher “score”, a wider farm, or a bunch of badges (that are really just little digital icons, Yeaaay!).  All of these are centered around gratifying the specific user, not the collective whole.  Twitter is in this group if you’re obsessed with number of followers or if you think you’re “promoting” something, and not “sharing” something.

Before you go labeling me a communist, hear me out: I’m not saying one is better than the other (okay, maybe a little bit).  What I’m trying to say is that it seems to me that the users who are rooted firmly in the self-centric models seem to be the ones that end up being the blabbermouths in the group-centric networks.  These are the ones that we tend to turn off, to unfriend, or to relegate to our ‘blabbermouths’ circle.  I welcome Klout now counting foursquare checkins.  If I could only figure out a way to get a script that would automatically filter those high klout score people into my blabbermouth circle.

Google 2011

A little something I put together with the help of 2112.net

We are the priests of the Temple of Syrinx
Our great computers filled these Hallowed Halls

Four and a half years ago, I posited that there would be an ever-growing demand for storage within ecommerce companies: customer data, product data, transaction data, then all the generated data that would come from combining any of those three major sectors together.  In the end, I figured that it wasn’t about the amount of information as it was about the ability to combine and synthesize some sort of conclusion or direction out of that mind-numbingly large amount of data.

Boy, I didn’t even see a sliver of what’s really out there now.  At the time, I didn’t see any of the social graph information, background automatic information (e.g. weather, geospatial, temporal data inputs) or additional strata that have swelled into existence in the last few years.  Yet, I still stand by my thesis: it’s not about the amount of information, it’s about one’s ability to draw a direction. Even with the best BI tools commercially available (and I’ve always found them little more than glorified SQL query generators), we don’t get very far.

Enter Google+.

Google already knew our surfing habits, and by most common estimates controls around 75% of the search market and a strong slice of the affiliate market, which means that it roughly controls 75% of the online marketing economy.  Google was further grabbing eyeball time with Youtube and other acquisitions, as well as in-house projects like GMail, Google News, Google Docs, and Android.  The question remains: Is Google able to synthesize all of these data points together and form a psychographic of 1 for Dave Jenkins that is so highly tuned and accurate that the conversion rate for advertisers soars through the roof?

I don’t know, but maybe.  Maybe they’ve made some progress, and maybe Google+ is a big step forward in that unification methodology: now I am willingly handing over profile information with my links, +1s, social graph connections, and naming my circles.

All of that raises a more nuanced and important question: Do I care?  The paranoid subhumans Troskyite in me screams out that “Hell YES I care!  Stop tracking me!”  But I simultaneously cannot ignore the wistful dreamlike convenience that a perfect advertising profile could bring: only show me adverts for things I care about or should care about; stop wasting my time with suggestions that I listen to the new Katy Perry song but continue to suggest the Beyonce one because it knows  I think she’s just that damn sexy; Improve the overall marketing efficiency for every online marketer, thus improving the overall efficiency of the economy by a few billion dollars.  Yes, everyone wins, especially Google.

I don’t think they’re there yet, but I do know that Google+ is a big step forward toward the Singularity of Online, and I can bet (guess? hope?) that they’ve got a Db cluster named “Syrinx” in the Googleplex somewhere, if only for the sense of irony.

Sometime in the late 90’s, I ran an Internet development and design studio.  It was the go-go days, where everyone insisted their idea was highly confidential and stoopid amounts of money were being made by migrating companies on to “The Internet” (yes, we actually capitalized it back in the day, and put quotes around it as some sort of foreign object or artificial theoretical construct).  A lot of our potential clients had AOL email addresses, or kept talking in AOL terminology.  One day, I expressed my frustration with these rubes and disparaged AOL to my business partner.  “Feh.  AOL.  Rubes!” I said.

“Ah, are you sure you want them to move from AOL to the Internet?”, my wiser and more thoughtful friend asked.  “Think about it,” he continued, “Do you really want those nimrods asking their nimrod questions on our forums and message boards and all that?”

From an immediate revenue concern, as a design studio owner, yes, I did want them to move over.  I made money moving them over.  On a personal level, as an early-adoptor-techno-snob, no I didn’t want them on my precious Internet.  I am sure the geeks rued the day when ARPANET was opened up to idiots like me (without a comp sci background).

Why am I telling you this?  Because last night, I experienced that blissful Virginia Empty Continent wonder for a few hours.  Google+ went live yesterday, and invitations were limited.  I was one of the chosen select, even before Ashton Kuchter got in.  From what I could tell, there were only a few thousand of us (besides Googlers).  The wonderment and excitement was tangible.  It still is.

Many of my friends have been begging me for invites.  I’ll get them out as soon as I can.  But be warned, you may not want to come over.  In fact, I recommend you don’t come over:

  • There are no games like Farmville or Mafia Wars or anything else with little avatars sporting huge heads and anime eyes
  • There are no corporate pages from Chrysler Motors or Budweiser or Dave & Busters or Touchstone Pictures
  • Your high school friends aren’t there (yet).  G+ won’t suggest people you know, it will only tell you whom you already know (your GMail contacts).
  • There aren’t any lengthy threads debating whether Dancing with the Idols was better than You’ve Got Stars last night.

You really want to stay on Facebook, I promise.  It’s nice and comfy, right?  All your friends are already there, right?  Change is painful, right?  You won’t be able to import your WoW or Zynga character profiles, so why bother, right?

No, G+ isn’t for you.  It’s full of geeks and all texty and complicated.

Yeah, this is pretty much sums it up.

My friend at Google hooked me up with an early invitation to Google+, the new social networking interface from They Who Do No Evil.  So far, I like it, if only for the possible catharsis it offers me for starting over on whom I invite/include in my circle of friends.  I don’t know enough about the nuances yet to give a full-blown analysis, and the population isn’t wide enough for me to see many of my friends yet, but here’s what I’ve got so far:

  • Google+ already knows most of the people I deal with.  It has all the email addresses from my GMail account, so that makes sense.
  • The first thing I was prompted to do was add all my contacts into “circles”: friends, family, etc.  I could make up my own circles, also: Mishifts, SLC Punks, Tokyo.
  • Google already has my photo albums on Picasa, and taps in directly to those.  The result of this is that the photo quality seems to be quite a bit better than what we are getting on Facebook.
  • Google+ wants me to create “hang outs”, which are essentially open threads/chats/webcams.  This seems to be the most direct successor to Google Buzz, and perhaps the surviving nephew of Google Wave.  I don’t see any hangouts yet, so we’ll see.
  • I can “follow” people that I’ve never met, but are in the system: Robert Scoble, Randall Munroe, Matt Cutts.

That last point may be the most killer point here: Google can quickly subsume Facebook (the interface is almost identical), but then move beyond Facebook’s fatal flaw: Facebook was a response to the aliased teen anarchy of MySpace, and succeeded because of the strict requirement that you had to certifiably know everyone of your contacts.  Twitter grew up because it allowed a one-way gate of communication where I could “follow” people but they didn’t have to follow me back.  This works well for rock stars and stand up comics,  politicians, not so muchGoogle+ now offers a big step forward: one common place where I can do all that facebook sharing thing with my friends, follow rock stars (like twitter), and chat/interact in real-time like I was supposed to do with Google Wave.

Prediction: Google+ may actually have drawn a winner this time, and Facebook’s $100B valuation is about to take a big kick in the nads.  Twitter, you’re going to take a hit as well.

I made the first version of this graphic in November 2009.  At the time, I thought Google Wave was going to be one of the most compelling avenues of interaction on the intarwebs.  Oops.  The version you see above has been updated:  Google Wave is dead.  Polaroid film exists only as a rare remnant from “The Before Time”, and we can imagine the coming Mad Max among hispters to see who gets to expose the very last pack.

Red down arrows go out to the following:

  • Email is only getting more spam-filled by the day.  Each new email service vendor that comes online is allowing every company out there more complex ways to bother me and fill my inbox.
  • IRC, always the bastion of the pure GNU disciples and Anonymous, just doesn’t work for the rest of us.
  • Blogs (including this one) continue their march toward niche ionization, always sacrificing common-sense discussion for the sake of the sensational political rant or a celebrity nipple slip.

Twitter, as we saw in the aftermath of the Japan Tsunami and the Arab Spring, has really come into it’s own as a quick way to get updates out.  For that, it earns a green arrow in the right direction.  At the same time, however, we learn that 50% of tweets come from a very small set (0.05%) of the twitter population.  OCDs with fast thumbs, I guess.  For that, it also gets a red arrow.

The two winners in the communications derby are still face-to-face honest interaction and Skype.  Skype is free, it’s the default chat for an ever-increasing segment of the population, the audio quality beats a land-line or cell phone every time, and the video is just icing on the cake.  If you use skype a lot, you really start to wonder how much longer the telephone (in its current state) has left.

Did Microsoft pay too much for Skype?  Maybe.  But when you look at the long ball, probably not.

Loosely translated as: Bring this ring to Mordor's Chevrolet for big savings and free hot dogs!

I just signed up for Shopkick, a micro-couponing site that gives out 2-3 “kicks” every time I view a coupon on their app. The coupons are from stores within 500 meters of where I am right now, along with the promise of 30-50 kicks if I actually cross the threshold of any of these stores, then even more if I take a photo of the lifestyle poster on the back wall of the store… you get the idea.

This comes on the heels of Groupon which was offering deals to get me to sign up, or LivingSocial to introduce new hip stores in the mall with frozen yogurt and yoga classes before we go antiquing over at Pottery Barn.  Two steps behind all of them is Facebook, which keeps hinting at offering some sort of viable credit/coupon mechanism, but somehow fails to achieve any penetration beyond Foramville credits to the addicts. Shopkick, Groupon, LivingSocial and the rest all jump into Facebook’s lap for user registration, and jump right back out again.  Let’s face it: in terms of shopping, Facebook is little more than identity verification and an address-book virus with permissions turned on.

All these sites/apps/gimmicks are trying  for the same thing: peeling away some of the huge dollars that companies will spend to get you to start on the journey that will eventually end up with you opening your wallet.  For those who don’t want to remember MBA school, it goes something like this:

Brand Awareness -> Consideration -> Product Shopping -> Purchase -> Support

Groupon and LivingSocial are doing pretty well on that first step, but as I’ve discussed before, they may be giving away too much for the retailer to maintain any margin, and might actually attract the wrong demographic with massive discounts.  But then again, as my friend Patrick Evans points out, Groupon does ask for the purchase right there (up front), so any margins may be recovered on the breakage.

Shopkick’s approach looks to be different: micro-rewards for micro-steps.  Look at the coupon, 2 points.  Walk by the store in the mall, 2 more points.  Walk into the store, 30 points.  Take a photo of a product, 30 more points.  Actually talk to a sales person, 50 points!  It’s more game-like, and doesn’t require any up-front purchase.  It’s a soft-sell.  What remains to be seen is if people will run around the mall haranguing the sales people all day just to collect points  with zero intent of actually buying anything.  But then again, what else is new?

It’s still a race– no single coupon dealer network has been able to run the table yet.  There is no magic key to unlock all doors; retailers are barely catching on to mobile phones still, let alone really being able to exploit (nicely) a path to get the right coupons to the right customers.  The ring, I think, is still out there somewhere.

Quakebook record

See the quakebook at http://quakebook.blogspot.com

Okay, it’s been two and a half weeks since the earthquake and tsunami, and I’ve been slack in not writing something here.  First and foremost, Yumiko and I are fine.  Her family is fine.  All our friends that we’ve contacted (including Yumi’s friends in Sendai) are safe.  We were in St Louis when it hit– and for that, I feel guilty.

I feel guilty for not being there, for not being able to help.  I feel guilty for not “sticking it out” with all my friends in Tokyo and Chiba that are somehow putting one foot in front of the other and trying to make a normal life again.  We didn’t evacuate Tokyo, we had left two weeks before it hit (as scheduled).  I would like to think that we wouldn’t have evacuated, but then again, I see my friends who have moved their wives and children down to Western Japan or back to the US, and I honestly can’t say what I would have done.

Living in Japan, one cannot help but confront the older generation that put up with incredible hardships to make the modern miracle.  These people endured starvation, bombings, privation, and said nothing, but simply picked up the pieces and worked harder to make an economic powerhouse out of ashes.  My own father-in-law tells the story of when he was 8 years old in 1945, and he had to scour the woods near his house for grasses and edible roots to boil over an open pot.  He ate grass.  For several weeks.  This same man went on  to  work incredible hours at a construction company and ended up retiring just a few years ago in relative comfort.  He reminds us of this occasionally, and it pretty much shuts me up for any complaints I may have been entertaining in the back of my head.

Now, we’ve got a whole new generation of Japanese that will 頑張る (“gambaru” – to stick it out, hold on, endure) through their own phoenix-like period.  The country is broke.  The economy was already wobbly after years of stagnation.  The population is in decline.  Japanese efficiency is gradually being eclipsed by their Korean neighbors and the cheaper Chinese/Vietnamese/Indians.  The government was never really that transparent nor reassuring, aside from Secretary Edano (who finally got some sleep).  It will be a tough slog.

I am hopeful however.  This is the first large-scale disaster that we’re really seeing unfold in real-time first-hand.  My twitter feed has been both a curse and a blessing: a curse because I am not there and can do little but donate to the Japan Red Cross; a blessing because I’ve been witnessing my friends move through various stages of recovery:

  • In those early hours, it really was all about contacting each other.  That’s it.  The phone lines were jammed, cell phones turned off.  If twitter or Facebook ever proved their worth, this was it.  We couldn’t reach our parents for almost a full day, but ultimately, my father logged into Skype, and we were able to talk for 30 minutes (free!).  I got twitter updates from all my friends, and the initial panic subsided.
  • The next few days was a scramble of aftershocks, sleepless anxiety, and the creeping uncertainty of the Fukushima nuclear plant.  Here again, social networks proved their value if anything but to keep small bits of information rolling amongst my friends.  The most fascinating bit was to see the first-person reactions against the western media– who were getting the situation completely wrong or couldn’t even be bothered to leave their hotel rooms.  One more strike against old media, methinks.
  • Prayforjapan.jp showed a stream of tweets, several of which had me in tears at several points throughout the last three weeks.  The selflessness and gratitude of survivors has been covered elsewhere, so I won’t list them out here again, except to say that it’s a shame that many of the best stories were never translated into English.
  • The adrenaline started to wear down, and my friends began to update the most inane little bits of update on twitter and facebook: “Leaving work, headed to the station now” followed 30 minutes later with “at the train station, walking home now”.  It dawned on me that these updates served a couple of roles: it reassured us (friends and family) that these people were still alive, and it probably reassured the writer in some sort of Bill Murrayish baby steps baby steps one-foot-at-a-time way to get through the rolling blackouts and hoarded food.
  • After a few days, the lightness started to come back.  The Kiwis and Aussies in Tokyo started sending twitpics of the pints they were drinking, the Japanese friends started to trade black humor about what the yakuza would do with no pachinko parlours.  The rebirth was beginning.

Now, we’re actually starting to see something constructive come together.  the Libyan revolt has since eclipsed the western news, and Japan still sweats the Fukushima plant, but these networks are starting to put things together themselves.  I still cannot figure out where the money to rebuild will come from, but I know that Japan will be alright.  This is an incredibly resilient place, an incredibly warm and resilient people.  日本は回復する!頑張ろ!

If you’d like to help, please donate to the Japan Red Cross.  If you’d like to see these stories and find out more about the real time unfolding of this whole thing, check out the #Quakebook at http://quakebook.blogspot.com

© 2010 Dave Jenkins contact me via twitter @davejenk1ns or via email blog at davejenkins dot com Suffusion WordPress theme by Sayontan Sinha