I was at dinner with one of our good friends from Zimbra, and we were talking about random histories of the big players (MS Apple, Google, etc) and how the OS is rapidly becoming a commoditised moot point. As the conversation progressed, my tin-foil hat started to show, and I began to wonder if Microsoft may be playing a Hudsucker Proxy on our hapless friends in Orem:
- Microsoft has enough business analysts on the payroll to realize that Open Source is unstoppable. Individual companies may falter, but the code and model are pernicious and maleable enough to resist any attack. It’s like sweeping ants in the jungle– there will always be more.
- Microsoft knows they must come to Open Source eventually– but where? where to pull in OSS without damaging the cash cow? The OS. Noone really pays for the OS anymore, not real money. Sure, we all pay support contracts, but not big cash. Eye candy makes money. For Redmond, the money is the apps. So, where to find an OS partner… Red Hat? too religious. Ubuntu? too foreign. Mandriva? unknown. Debian? communists. Novell? aha– desparate for the bandwagon, jonny-come-latelys, good market share, lotsa cash laying around. In a word: suckers.
- Microsoft does a deal, and Novell signs over their souls, and the partnership has begun. Here’s the problem– does Mircrosoft ever really partner with anyone for very long?
- The next day, sure enough, Steve Ballmer is out making fun of his new friends. Novell desperately tries to paint on some lipstick for their new boyfriend because he’s out trash-talking. The community begins to turn, Novell stock drops
- Now, a few months later, Novell fesses up and starts to admit that MS is the better ROI. That’s right, bitch– make me a sammich and get me a beer, too. The stock will only drop further.
- Soon, maybe 18 months from now, the stock will be cheap enough that Redmond will get out their checkbook. What’s worse, with that whole SCO nightmare still loose, MS may find itself the owner of some core UNIX intellectual property. If/when that happens, all our lives get washed down the toilet.
Am I crazy? God I hope so.
I’ll be speaking at the
Novell is at the crossroads. And I don’t mean that as a metaphor for some large decision or deciding which future direction to take. No, I mean it more in the 
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