Dilettantes. Middle-class schnooks with some disposable money chasing the big payoff but not enough patience nor smarts to really pull it off. They’re not the suckers down at the Cash-n-Go, and they’re not the rational thinkers at Morgan Stanley, they’re in-between. They know someone really rich, and think that they are just as smart (but they’re not). They work, and they probably save, but not enough. They invest, but regret those investments because they didn’t buy Google.

The Dilettantes come in waves. They were multi-level marketers in the 80s, day-traders in the late 90s, and web developers soon after. The Dilettante Economy revolves around, provides the toolsets for, and celebrates the rare winners (just like a Casino billboard on the freeway that promises you Freedom) within this demographic. Shows like “Flip This House” and “Property Ladder” fed on this, just as Countrywide Loans and all those other loose finance companies made real dollars enabling all this poor behaviour. Before this wave, eTrade, Charles Schwab, and Ameritrade made their mark with fees from the day-traders, and NuSkin, Avon, and Amway before then. Hell, I could trace this economy all the way back to Levi Strauss: the California Gold Rush of 1849 brought a lot of dilettantes, but it was ole’ Levi who got rich by selling them blue jeans sewn from the surplus sailing canvas torn from the ships rotting in San Fransisco Bay.

The New York Times picked this up (and actually did some interviews, unlike my cheap rants here):

“That is an income Randy Haddadin would have welcomed. Mr. Haddadin, 38, moved to Miami Beach in December 2003 from Washington, after leaving a job in information technology. He promptly got his real estate license.
[...]
Mr. Haddadin is now weighing his options. He might seek a job in information technology again, or perhaps help a friend open an Italian restaurant in Miami Beach, while selling real estate on the side.”

In other words, this guy jumped on the IT thing when that was hip, burned out when his skillz weren’t enough, then hawked property. I hope his pesto sauce actually has some punch behind it, because he sure sounds like a Dilettante to me.

So, now that the Dilettantes can no longer feed on each other and the suckers below them, now that the interest-only floating-rate NINJA loans are gone, what is the next big thing?

My guess: debt collection and repo men. I am working on my ‘How to Succeed at Finance Recovery’ kit right now. It goes on sale next month for $499.

Scott saved my soul on more than one occasion. he showed me there is meaning in life– the meaning is living itself. Scott made me watch “The Razor’s Edge” at least twice, until I got it: Life is life– not to be squandered. In this movie, two characters sit in a foxhole in WWI, lamenting the loss of their close friend, who only moments before jumped on top of a grenade to save their lives. In some odd ritual, they listed out the vices of their dead friend, and– through their tears– tell each other that he will not be missed.

Scott lost a battle to cancer last month. He was 38. He likely lived more in those 38 years than many many of us could even hope to do in a hundred years. Scott was brash, smart, quick, and charming. he could cut quick with a comment, but follow up with a trusting support that let others knew he would back them no matter what. Scott was one of my oldest and closest friends.

He will be missed.

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Well, Seoul is smack in the middle of a bubble herself…

One need only read the local rags to see a daily argument over insane measures going on in Gangnam on the south side, from kidnappings, to school threats (so parents can get their own kids in), to ’stingent measures’ from the government to cool off prices, that– if they don’t work, will be followed by ‘even more stringent measures’. (oooh. we’re scared now!) One telling statistic: 67.2% of the population sees property as the best means to increase wealth (history shows it is the stock market), but this is understandable after the Korean market melted 5 years ago. No stock is as safe as a high rise on the south-side of the river, right?

Every day some pop-off gives his 20 won on the whole thing, but these amount to little more than handwringing and empty rhetoric. From today: “By whatever means, the government needs to deal with speculation. But a path should be left open for investment” and “To open the path of retreat and prevent money from gathering mold is the role of politics.” Whatever.

KoreaTelecom recently laid off 5000, and more will soon follow from the other leading manufacturers. This, to me, is the sign of a coming pop. I give it about 4-5 months more. Right when those guys unemployment benefits start running out, and their credit starts to collapse along with it, we’ll see investment companies call in their mortgages or try to consolidate their holdings, and the whole thing will come crashing down.

Careful with that stick…

I forgot my scissors, so I just hung out by the plate and ate with my chopsticks. The next day, we went for a long drive to see the colors, which was nice, but man– it was a long drive with a bad driver (there, I said it).

All in all it was a nice weekend from the grime of Seoul. It was relaxing to basically sit around and eat for two days, even thought I understood maybe 10% of what was being said around me. They could have all been making fun of me right ther in front of me, but I doubt it. Koreans are warm people once you get to know them.

The more I thought about it, and the more I hang out in Seoul, the more I think he hit the nail on the head. Tokyo has restaurants, markets, museums, shops, (and did i mention restaurants?) that blow your mind. Many is the weekend where I pick a random stop on the Yamanote line and just walk around. There is a magazine that is geared toward doing just that, named “Tokyo Walker“, oddly enough.

Seoul. People in Seoul aren`t so concerned about the restaurants where they have dinner. They don`t care about using their cellphones on the train (strictly verbotten in Tokyo). The entire population here seems like ot buys shirts from KMart– but that`s okay, because it`s _everyone_, so no one really sticks out as underdressed. Just yesterday I bought 4 shirts on the street for $5 each– these aren`t Ralph Lauren, but their pretty close to Van Heusen (gaach, did I just write that?)

Next week I`ll be in Tokyo. It will be good to be home. When I get back to Seoul, it will be good to be here again too.

Don`t get me wrong, I like Korea, but it isn`t “home”. I get strange responses when I tell this to my friends here in Toyko, because they assume that home is Washington, or Utah, or London– but that is the whole point.

I`ve moved enough lately (okay, always) that the concept of home has become where I happen to be for more than two months straight. I took a big step when I got to Tokyo and bought a sofa and a bed. Heh, permanence. I know the barber, the gyoza shop down the street, the kid at the convenience store. I`ve spent nights walking around the neighborhood, getting off the train one stop too soon just to see what was there. I know what my apt. smells like (nice smell, don`t worry).

Will Seoul become home? Right now I don`t think so, but check back in 4 months…