September 8th, 2007

The Dilettante Economy

I aint no Repo ManWell, the bubble has popped. For the record, this is the third real estate bubble I’ve seen– Tokyo in 1988, Seoul in 2004, and now all of the USA in 2007. Funny thing about bubbles, they’re so apparently obvious in hindsight, or even in the middle of them, but The Fever takes over, and no one wants to hear anything bad. For me, a big sign was the show “Flip This House”, which essentially showed idiots in SoCal who would buy cheesebox shitholes, redo the kitchen, and make $200K in 6 weeks. I say ‘idiots’ because most of them really were that– preoccupied with paint and tile selections rather than improving the structural integrity or usable space of these homes.

Dilettantes. Middle-class schnooks with some disposable money chasing the big payoff but not enough patience nor smarts to really pull it off. They’re not the suckers down at the Cash-n-Go, and they’re not the rational thinkers at Morgan Stanley, they’re in-between. They know someone really rich, and think that they are just as smart (but they’re not). They work, and they probably save, but not enough. They invest, but regret those investments because they didn’t buy Google.

The Dilettantes come in waves. They were multi-level marketers in the 80s, day-traders in the late 90s, and web developers soon after. The Dilettante Economy revolves around, provides the toolsets for, and celebrates the rare winners (just like a Casino billboard on the freeway that promises you Freedom) within this demographic. Shows like “Flip This House” and “Property Ladder” fed on this, just as Countrywide Loans and all those other loose finance companies made real dollars enabling all this poor behaviour. Before this wave, eTrade, Charles Schwab, and Ameritrade made their mark with fees from the day-traders, and NuSkin, Avon, and Amway before then. Hell, I could trace this economy all the way back to Levi Strauss: the California Gold Rush of 1849 brought a lot of dilettantes, but it was ole’ Levi who got rich by selling them blue jeans sewn from the surplus sailing canvas torn from the ships rotting in San Fransisco Bay.

The New York Times picked this up (and actually did some interviews, unlike my cheap rants here):

“That is an income Randy Haddadin would have welcomed. Mr. Haddadin, 38, moved to Miami Beach in December 2003 from Washington, after leaving a job in information technology. He promptly got his real estate license.
[…]
Mr. Haddadin is now weighing his options. He might seek a job in information technology again, or perhaps help a friend open an Italian restaurant in Miami Beach, while selling real estate on the side.”

In other words, this guy jumped on the IT thing when that was hip, burned out when his skillz weren’t enough, then hawked property. I hope his pesto sauce actually has some punch behind it, because he sure sounds like a Dilettante to me.

So, now that the Dilettantes can no longer feed on each other and the suckers below them, now that the interest-only floating-rate NINJA loans are gone, what is the next big thing?

My guess: debt collection and repo men. I am working on my ‘How to Succeed at Finance Recovery’ kit right now. It goes on sale next month for $499.

January 7th, 2007

Scott Swaner

Scott SwanerI first met Scott in English class when we were freshmen at East High School. He was smart, really really smart. The trick was that he was witty and outgoing and cool on top of being smart. Scott wore black and white wingtipped shoes to school because _he_ thought they were cool, nevermind what anyone else thought. That was Scott– he decided what he wanted to do and went after it will all his guts. The same could be said for his music, skating, schoolage, and girls. Later, at University, Scott pointed out the best looking girl on campus (and she was at the time), and told me he would marry her (we had only met her a few hours earlier). Sure enough, six months later, Scott married her.

Scott saved my soul on more than one occasion. he showed me there is meaning in life– the meaning is living itself. Scott made me watch “The Razor’s Edge” at least twice, until I got it: Life is life– not to be squandered. In this movie, two characters sit in a foxhole in WWI, lamenting the loss of their close friend, who only moments before jumped on top of a grenade to save their lives. In some odd ritual, they listed out the vices of their dead friend, and– through their tears– tell each other that he will not be missed.

Scott lost a battle to cancer last month. He was 38. He likely lived more in those 38 years than many many of us could even hope to do in a hundred years. Scott was brash, smart, quick, and charming. he could cut quick with a comment, but follow up with a trusting support that let others knew he would back them no matter what. Scott was one of my oldest and closest friends.

He will be missed.

September 21st, 2004

www.OpenAsia.org is online!

Forgive the shameless plug, but I have launched a new website at www.openasia.org that will focus on Open Source projects occuring here in North Asia (Japan, Korea, China). The site will carry project introductions, company profiles, interviews with developers, evangelists, and decision-makers. I will also carry reports from events such as LinuxWorld Tokyo, PostGreSQL conferences, and other places that are within my budget to attend.

If you have a news story or lead you think worth pursuing– please email me here or submit the story yourself at the site. Enjoy!

November 3rd, 2003

Property Bubble in Seoul

Remember the late 1980s? When the Japanese were taking over the planet, buying everything in site? Then remember when the bubble popped?

Well, Seoul is smack in the middle of a bubble herself…

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October 29th, 2003

Barbeque time… where are my scissors?

Let`s have a barbeque! Did you bring your scissors? Korean barbeque consists of long strips of pork and beef, about the same size as bacon. but like 4 times as thick. We cover the grill with the meat, and then as each piece is done, someone volunteers their scissors, slices the meat into little pieces, and throws them into a plate.

I forgot my scissors, so I just hung out by the plate and ate with my chopsticks. The next day, we went for a long drive to see the colors, which was nice, but man– it was a long drive with a bad driver (there, I said it).

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October 3rd, 2003

Weekend in GyeongJu

I had a great weekend travelling down to the East coast of Korea last week. GyeongJu is the ancient capital of the Silla kingdom, thriving about 1100 years ago. Temples, burial mounds, and some nice food…

October 3rd, 2003

Weekend in GyeongJu

I had a great weekend travelling down to the East coast of Korea last week. GyeongJu is the ancient capital of the Silla kingdom, thriving about 1100 years ago. Temples, burial mounds, and some nice food…

September 27th, 2003
September 27th, 2003

Deeper Shade of Seoul pt I

An officer for my company came to Korea last week for some meetings. We were hanging out afterwads, and we started talking about the difference between Tokyo and Seoul. He mentioned that Tokyo is a great city, but Seoul has great people…

The more I thought about it, and the more I hang out in Seoul, the more I think he hit the nail on the head. Tokyo has restaurants, markets, museums, shops, (and did i mention restaurants?) that blow your mind. Many is the weekend where I pick a random stop on the Yamanote line and just walk around. There is a magazine that is geared toward doing just that, named “Tokyo Walker“, oddly enough.

Seoul. People in Seoul aren`t so concerned about the restaurants where they have dinner. They don`t care about using their cellphones on the train (strictly verbotten in Tokyo). The entire population here seems like ot buys shirts from KMart– but that`s okay, because it`s _everyone_, so no one really sticks out as underdressed. Just yesterday I bought 4 shirts on the street for $5 each– these aren`t Ralph Lauren, but their pretty close to Van Heusen (gaach, did I just write that?)

Next week I`ll be in Tokyo. It will be good to be home. When I get back to Seoul, it will be good to be here again too.

September 11th, 2003

Home Again, Home Again

Jiggety Jig.

Don`t get me wrong, I like Korea, but it isn`t “home”. I get strange responses when I tell this to my friends here in Toyko, because they assume that home is Washington, or Utah, or London– but that is the whole point.

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