Dave

Born in Salt Lake City. Eagle Scout.

wine on the roof

Facebook has announced that it will be adding filters for photos, so people can retro-wash their pics with that synthetic polaroid saturation, or get all poignant with some black and white pics of their kids putting peanut butter on the cat. This is being billed as a direct response to instagram. I would assume it’s positioned as a defense, and the people prefer instagram because of all the filters.

This misses the true point of instagram, IMHO: instragram is cool not only because of the filters (which are fun), but because it boils down the social interaction to just the photo. There’s no goofy update about the kids’ schooling, no mafia wars, no idiot lolcat videos. Just the photos. There’s a certain artsy-like austerity to it, which communicates on a different (deeper?) level for people.

I like instragram because it’s clean, not because people have dorked with the colors on their pics. It’s my own personal gallery walk: quiet, reflective, and ultimately more communicative than words.

After the horrible accident last week on China’s High Speed Rail, stocks in the rail companies are taking a beating. Most of the money seems to be shifting to Chinese Airline companies, which would stand to reason as simple replacement.  However, the article also notes that the property along the rail lines, which had been seeing a boom in anticipation of higher demand, may now take a hit.  Worse, the China Railway Ministry was already awash in red ink.  This certainly makes things worse.

It’s always the unintended consequences that cause the pain.  In this case, all those Chinese middle-class investors who had been buying 2nd and 3rd apartments as “investments” may now find a tighter market, or worse, start to dump their properties in the secondary and tertiary cities (the ones that would have been benefiting from the high speed rail).

I’m not going as far to say this will “pop” the bubble, but I am saying it’s a pinprick.  If the Chinese government suffers a confidence hit from the poor handling (and it looks like they’re well under way of doing just that), it will be another pinprick.

How many can they suffer?

sabrina2.jpg
LinkedIn CEO Jeff Weiner has gone on the record thinking that Google+ may start to crowd the field, and that social networks are approaching a zero-sum game: people really only have so much discretionary time, and they’re not going to “add” another network unless they start diminishing another.

I agree.  However, LinkedIn may not like where things wind up.

We all seem to understand that LinkedIn was the serious older brother to Facebook.  LinkedIn carried your full CV and business contacts, while Facebook had your college buddies and pictures of body parts usually wrapped in cotton.  LinkedIn allowed us to form groups and networks for the various facets of our careers, while Facebook let us to simply ‘hang out’.  Unfortunately, LinkedIn may have overplayed its hand: the groups were so loose, the email notifications so prevalent, and the questions so inane, that I just don’t read them anymore.  LinkedIn has a Spam problem: when every possible service vendor out there can figure out that I’m a stakeholder and decision-maker, the spam goes way up.  When service vendors start to troll questions in the groups just to get possible sales leads, the spam goes way up.

Let’s face it: if anyone spends serious time on LinkedIn, it’s likely because they’re in between jobs or trolling for a new job.  That means they’ve got a lot of time on their hands, and likely aren’t on their game as much as they should.  As a result, the discussion topics come across a bit stale, a bit desperate, a bit pumped up.  In short, quality of content suffers.  LinkedIn discussion groups are like soup in a hotel buffet line: looks good, but you have no idea what’s in there, or who’s been putting their spoon in that.

Google+, on the other hand, got the privacy part correct: people can add me all day long (and I’m already starting to see the vendors showing up when they add me to their circles), but it’s up to me whom I add.  In other words, I get to choose who sees the content I publish, and I get to choose who’s content I see.  This is the big difference that G+ learned from Twitter, and it’s just the right amount of inoculation that LinkedIn doesn’t have.

So, Weiner’s correct: my time is limited.  I want professional updates from my peers and people I admire in the business.  I want to connect with them professionally.  But guess what, it likely won’t be on LinkedIn anymore…

It's all part of a cosmic unconsciousness.

All of the techno “stars” came out in that first 24 hours of Google+.  There was Joi Itoh, Robert Scoble, Seth Godin, Harry Joiner, etc.  Most of them seemed to keep it cool, poking around and commenting here and there.  One of them charged ahead, posting something every 5 minutes, often with some half-baiting question that subsequently invoked a huge chain of follow-on comments.   Because of the way that Google+ is structured, these posts came in real-time, and the page text would automatically scroll down.  It made things very difficult to follow anything else.  In short, we had a blabbermouth on our hands.

This person acknowledged that he was being a blabbermouth, and simply invited people to add him to a “blabbermouths” circle in order to clean up their feed.  Done, and done.  Ah, much better.

Soon after, I found other blabbermouths.  These were people that I had considered “friends” at first (and placed them accordingly), but when their posts came in too often, too self-promotional, and too meta, into the “blabbermouths” they went.  It’s like a garden with weeds, or a party with loud drunks, or a restaurant buffet with someone bogarting all the shrimp cocktail: you’re ruining it for the rest of us.

Tangentially, I went to Klout for the firsts time a couple weeks ago.  From what I can tell (and please let me know if I’m missing something), it’s just a “score”, with the supposed goal of getting a higher score– some sort of substitute for social influence, I guess.  Klout seems to be struggling for legitimacy, but maybe I’m just not seeing it.  I do see one helpful thing they announced this morning: Klout will now count Foursquare check-ins as part of the score.

Excellent.  Here’s why: In my mind, there are two types of online social interaction.

  1. Group-Centric Social Media– is collaborative, centered on contribution to a whole, and serves the overall group. Examples include wikipedia, quora, flickr, instagram, turntable, or any other social network where people’s contributions are shared freely and allow others to manipulate, build, alter or improve as they see fit.  Facebook and g+ likely qualify here, as any contribution by a single individual goes out to all their friends, who can then comment (improve knowledge or clarify a point) as they see fit.  No one is keeping “score” publicly.  Twitter may be in this group, but maybe not.
  2. Self-Centric Social Media– is promotional, centered on contribution to a personal record, and is centered on the self.  Examples include Foursquare, klout, and farmville.  The goals in these are to achieve a higher “score”, a wider farm, or a bunch of badges (that are really just little digital icons, Yeaaay!).  All of these are centered around gratifying the specific user, not the collective whole.  Twitter is in this group if you’re obsessed with number of followers or if you think you’re “promoting” something, and not “sharing” something.

Before you go labeling me a communist, hear me out: I’m not saying one is better than the other (okay, maybe a little bit).  What I’m trying to say is that it seems to me that the users who are rooted firmly in the self-centric models seem to be the ones that end up being the blabbermouths in the group-centric networks.  These are the ones that we tend to turn off, to unfriend, or to relegate to our ‘blabbermouths’ circle.  I welcome Klout now counting foursquare checkins.  If I could only figure out a way to get a script that would automatically filter those high klout score people into my blabbermouth circle.

Google 2011

A little something I put together with the help of 2112.net

We are the priests of the Temple of Syrinx
Our great computers filled these Hallowed Halls

Four and a half years ago, I posited that there would be an ever-growing demand for storage within ecommerce companies: customer data, product data, transaction data, then all the generated data that would come from combining any of those three major sectors together.  In the end, I figured that it wasn’t about the amount of information as it was about the ability to combine and synthesize some sort of conclusion or direction out of that mind-numbingly large amount of data.

Boy, I didn’t even see a sliver of what’s really out there now.  At the time, I didn’t see any of the social graph information, background automatic information (e.g. weather, geospatial, temporal data inputs) or additional strata that have swelled into existence in the last few years.  Yet, I still stand by my thesis: it’s not about the amount of information, it’s about one’s ability to draw a direction. Even with the best BI tools commercially available (and I’ve always found them little more than glorified SQL query generators), we don’t get very far.

Enter Google+.

Google already knew our surfing habits, and by most common estimates controls around 75% of the search market and a strong slice of the affiliate market, which means that it roughly controls 75% of the online marketing economy.  Google was further grabbing eyeball time with Youtube and other acquisitions, as well as in-house projects like GMail, Google News, Google Docs, and Android.  The question remains: Is Google able to synthesize all of these data points together and form a psychographic of 1 for Dave Jenkins that is so highly tuned and accurate that the conversion rate for advertisers soars through the roof?

I don’t know, but maybe.  Maybe they’ve made some progress, and maybe Google+ is a big step forward in that unification methodology: now I am willingly handing over profile information with my links, +1s, social graph connections, and naming my circles.

All of that raises a more nuanced and important question: Do I care?  The paranoid subhumans Troskyite in me screams out that “Hell YES I care!  Stop tracking me!”  But I simultaneously cannot ignore the wistful dreamlike convenience that a perfect advertising profile could bring: only show me adverts for things I care about or should care about; stop wasting my time with suggestions that I listen to the new Katy Perry song but continue to suggest the Beyonce one because it knows  I think she’s just that damn sexy; Improve the overall marketing efficiency for every online marketer, thus improving the overall efficiency of the economy by a few billion dollars.  Yes, everyone wins, especially Google.

I don’t think they’re there yet, but I do know that Google+ is a big step forward toward the Singularity of Online, and I can bet (guess? hope?) that they’ve got a Db cluster named “Syrinx” in the Googleplex somewhere, if only for the sense of irony.

Sometime in the late 90′s, I ran an Internet development and design studio.  It was the go-go days, where everyone insisted their idea was highly confidential and stoopid amounts of money were being made by migrating companies on to “The Internet” (yes, we actually capitalized it back in the day, and put quotes around it as some sort of foreign object or artificial theoretical construct).  A lot of our potential clients had AOL email addresses, or kept talking in AOL terminology.  One day, I expressed my frustration with these rubes and disparaged AOL to my business partner.  “Feh.  AOL.  Rubes!” I said.

“Ah, are you sure you want them to move from AOL to the Internet?”, my wiser and more thoughtful friend asked.  “Think about it,” he continued, “Do you really want those nimrods asking their nimrod questions on our forums and message boards and all that?”

From an immediate revenue concern, as a design studio owner, yes, I did want them to move over.  I made money moving them over.  On a personal level, as an early-adoptor-techno-snob, no I didn’t want them on my precious Internet.  I am sure the geeks rued the day when ARPANET was opened up to idiots like me (without a comp sci background).

Why am I telling you this?  Because last night, I experienced that blissful Virginia Empty Continent wonder for a few hours.  Google+ went live yesterday, and invitations were limited.  I was one of the chosen select, even before Ashton Kuchter got in.  From what I could tell, there were only a few thousand of us (besides Googlers).  The wonderment and excitement was tangible.  It still is.

Many of my friends have been begging me for invites.  I’ll get them out as soon as I can.  But be warned, you may not want to come over.  In fact, I recommend you don’t come over:

  • There are no games like Farmville or Mafia Wars or anything else with little avatars sporting huge heads and anime eyes
  • There are no corporate pages from Chrysler Motors or Budweiser or Dave & Busters or Touchstone Pictures
  • Your high school friends aren’t there (yet).  G+ won’t suggest people you know, it will only tell you whom you already know (your GMail contacts).
  • There aren’t any lengthy threads debating whether Dancing with the Idols was better than You’ve Got Stars last night.

You really want to stay on Facebook, I promise.  It’s nice and comfy, right?  All your friends are already there, right?  Change is painful, right?  You won’t be able to import your WoW or Zynga character profiles, so why bother, right?

No, G+ isn’t for you.  It’s full of geeks and all texty and complicated.

Yeah, this is pretty much sums it up.

My friend at Google hooked me up with an early invitation to Google+, the new social networking interface from They Who Do No Evil.  So far, I like it, if only for the possible catharsis it offers me for starting over on whom I invite/include in my circle of friends.  I don’t know enough about the nuances yet to give a full-blown analysis, and the population isn’t wide enough for me to see many of my friends yet, but here’s what I’ve got so far:

  • Google+ already knows most of the people I deal with.  It has all the email addresses from my GMail account, so that makes sense.
  • The first thing I was prompted to do was add all my contacts into “circles”: friends, family, etc.  I could make up my own circles, also: Mishifts, SLC Punks, Tokyo.
  • Google already has my photo albums on Picasa, and taps in directly to those.  The result of this is that the photo quality seems to be quite a bit better than what we are getting on Facebook.
  • Google+ wants me to create “hang outs”, which are essentially open threads/chats/webcams.  This seems to be the most direct successor to Google Buzz, and perhaps the surviving nephew of Google Wave.  I don’t see any hangouts yet, so we’ll see.
  • I can “follow” people that I’ve never met, but are in the system: Robert Scoble, Randall Munroe, Matt Cutts.

That last point may be the most killer point here: Google can quickly subsume Facebook (the interface is almost identical), but then move beyond Facebook’s fatal flaw: Facebook was a response to the aliased teen anarchy of MySpace, and succeeded because of the strict requirement that you had to certifiably know everyone of your contacts.  Twitter grew up because it allowed a one-way gate of communication where I could “follow” people but they didn’t have to follow me back.  This works well for rock stars and stand up comics,  politicians, not so muchGoogle+ now offers a big step forward: one common place where I can do all that facebook sharing thing with my friends, follow rock stars (like twitter), and chat/interact in real-time like I was supposed to do with Google Wave.

Prediction: Google+ may actually have drawn a winner this time, and Facebook’s $100B valuation is about to take a big kick in the nads.  Twitter, you’re going to take a hit as well.

I googled "Monopoly Panda", and this is what I got.

The Alibaba Group dominates the ecommerce landscape in China.  It owns Alibaba, which is sort of a clearing house for finding sourcers or supply-chain providers for products.  It also owns Taobao.com which is rumored to control upwards of 70-75% of all ecommerce in China.  It also runs 支付宝 (Alipay), a payment system not unlike PayPal.  Beyond this, Alibaba is launching additional “upscale” portals, deal-of-the-day sites, private sale sites, and even putting its tow into media.

Dominance.

That dominance comes with a price, however.  Despite Taobao’s almost monopoly-level control over shopping, other portals have popped up and are getting some sustainable numbers.  Amazon is backing it’s own horse, XIU.com is cherry-picking off the top brands, 360buy.com, paipai.com, dangdang.com, M18.com (not the Latino gang, that’s M13.) are all showing some traction.  In a few months, we may have a real race on our hands.

Until now, most of these portals have had to knuckle under and use Alibaba’s payment gateway or go with some sort of simplified COD procedure.  But, as with all things on the intarwebs, business models get copied, code becomes commoditized, service parameters become standardized, data formats unified: these other shopping portals are beginning to make waves of developing their own payment methods or their own membership loyalty programs.  Due to the Network Effect, I doubt these additional payment gateways would get very far, but they might get far enough to give Alibaba a headache.

So what does Alibaba do in response?  Jack Ma, the Chairman for Alibaba (Chairman Ma?) has signaled that he may spin off the Alibaba empire into separate groups.  There are a few layers to this:

  • On the surface, Mr Ma says he wants to potentially take Alibaba through and IPO, which would bring rewards and riches to the employees and investors.  There’s no reason to doubt this motive.
  • Tactically, by spinning off certain parts and going public, Alibaba could dramatically reshape the relationship with their largest investor Yahoo and Softbank (where it seems there’s always been an undercurrent of conflict)
  • Strategically, Alibaba can extend its monopoly in payment gateway and supply chain clearing while allowing the other marketplace portals to rise a bit, or at least become more flexible overall, if each unit is operating independently.

In other words, the dominance will continue, it just won’t be so obvious and up front.

Acquisitions are so attractive.

eBay has acquired the open source ecommerce platform Magento.  Personally, I’m a fan of Magento’s functionality and flexibility, and also a big fan of open source applications.  In general, getting acquired by a large company is a good thing, so this should all be beer and skittles, right?

Maybe.

Open source projects rarely do well when acquired by a large company, especially when that company isn’t really lined up behind open source as a culture, nor when the acquired application isn’t in the company’s wheelhouse (sometimes it’s worse when the open source code is in the wheelhouse: witness Oracle’s botching of OpenOffice or near miss with MySQL).  Both demerits are in play with this acquisition: eBay is neither an open source company (like Red Hat or Canonical or Mozilla), and eBay has it’s own ecommerce flea market, not a history of publishing software for users.

eBay is pushing toward its X.Commerce platform: a complete suite for digital marketing and commerce for (what I would assume) mid-market businesses.  This makes sense: eBay has PayPal and also recently acquired GSI, who was known for having a decent client list and a string of warehouses around the country (and internationally) to provide logistics and fulfillment.  I described this as “following Taobao” a few weeks ago.  What GSI wasn’t known for was its ecommerce platform.  I’ve heard from around the community that GSI’s platform was in the middle of a complete tear-down and rebuild, as various bits of acquired code simply weren’t playing nicely with each other.

Questions:

  • Will eBay really move its main commerce branding beyond the flea market image they have (compared to Amazon)?  Can they (without sacrificing the huge cash flow that comes from that flea market)?
  • Does GSI’s platform really suck that bad that Magento is seen as a replacement for it?  If not, how will the GSI platform and Magento play nicely with each other?
  • Magento is open source.  If eBay is serious about keeping control of it, they’ll have to get out there publishing code often.  Otherwise, we’ll just fork it.  Culturally, can eBay pull this off?

I’ve launched a few Magento sites, and I wish them well.  I look forward to seeing what’s coming, but I also will start looking for an alternative if things go pear-shaped.

I made the first version of this graphic in November 2009.  At the time, I thought Google Wave was going to be one of the most compelling avenues of interaction on the intarwebs.  Oops.  The version you see above has been updated:  Google Wave is dead.  Polaroid film exists only as a rare remnant from “The Before Time”, and we can imagine the coming Mad Max among hispters to see who gets to expose the very last pack.

Red down arrows go out to the following:

  • Email is only getting more spam-filled by the day.  Each new email service vendor that comes online is allowing every company out there more complex ways to bother me and fill my inbox.
  • IRC, always the bastion of the pure GNU disciples and Anonymous, just doesn’t work for the rest of us.
  • Blogs (including this one) continue their march toward niche ionization, always sacrificing common-sense discussion for the sake of the sensational political rant or a celebrity nipple slip.

Twitter, as we saw in the aftermath of the Japan Tsunami and the Arab Spring, has really come into it’s own as a quick way to get updates out.  For that, it earns a green arrow in the right direction.  At the same time, however, we learn that 50% of tweets come from a very small set (0.05%) of the twitter population.  OCDs with fast thumbs, I guess.  For that, it also gets a red arrow.

The two winners in the communications derby are still face-to-face honest interaction and Skype.  Skype is free, it’s the default chat for an ever-increasing segment of the population, the audio quality beats a land-line or cell phone every time, and the video is just icing on the cake.  If you use skype a lot, you really start to wonder how much longer the telephone (in its current state) has left.

Did Microsoft pay too much for Skype?  Maybe.  But when you look at the long ball, probably not.

© 2010 Dave Jenkins contact me via twitter @davejenk1ns or via email blog at davejenkins dot com Suffusion WordPress theme by Sayontan Sinha