As goes Tokyo, so the rest of the world will follow. This is hard to swallow for women’s fashion, but it certainly holds true for cell phones, personal electronics, and violence comics. I’m in Tokyo, and here’s my prediction: the laptop’s days are numbered.
People want portable computing, no doubt. However, the market is quickly being divided into two camps: larger laptops for 20-something hipsters in studio apartments where the laptop really doesn’t go anywhere but cannot take up the entire desk, and small palm-tops that carry all the power of a “laptop” but actually fit in your pocket, aka, the palm-top.
My wife wanted a smaller (10 inch screen) laptop, but we are hard-pressed to find one at Yodobashi or Yamada Denki. My theory was confirmed by 3 different salesmen: either go bigger for the unportable all-in-one (with georgeous 19″ screens), or go down to the palm-top tablets. It is worth mentioning that, here in Japan, this laptop comes with a TV tuner, and serves as the entire media center: DVD player, TV, mp3 player, and AV anime download-o-rama. For what it’s worth, the Playstation3 also does all of these (including a browser) along with some kick-ass games, and just needs a nice LCD screen.
The only thing that may prevent the death of the laptop in the US is the college system that allows laptops (Japan does not)– students need something that fits on a desk, gets hauled from class to class, and has a big enough screen to watch ’scrubs’ or ‘chuck’ or whatever the kids are into lately.