what's your PPC strategy?

By now, you’ve read that GOOG tanked an almost 9% yesterday.  For me, that’s a buy opportunity.   The analysts and everyone on Wall Street are focused on the overall earnings and cash flow– as well they should be– but I saw something else in the numbers.  From the article on Business Insider:

  • Paid clicks: Up 33% on a year over year basis, and up 6% on a sequential basis.
  • Cost per clicks: Down 15% on a year over year basis, and down 3% on a sequential basis.
  • Traffic acquisitions costs: $2.77 compared to $2.21 for same period a year ago.

Seem from an online marketer’s perspective, this is telling us that the Pay-per-click market is maturing, and Google is pretty much in control (read: absolutely in control).  The revenue from their core business, PPC, is up a freaking 33% in one year!  Meanwhile, the cost per clicks have declined and the traffic acquisition costs have  gone up over 20%.  How do those numbers fit together?

In any market, there are the experienced players who have tools and smarts and a plan, and there are n00bs who think they know what they’re doing but end up blowing their money very quickly.  This is true for the stock market, the art auction scene, land speculation– hell, Vegas relies completely on this fact.  The PPC market is no different: experienced online retailers have a plan, good bid management software, and some experience on when to buy keywords and when not to buy keywords.  The n00bs don’t have all that.  They have a budget to buy keywords and are easily tempted to buy themselves into 1st place.  The problem arises when they burn through their budget quickly without enough conversions to sustain their campaigns (because they don’t really have a known brand yet, are selling the same stuff as Amazon, or just have a crappy website).  In short, they come in to the PPC casino, lay down all their money on red, and walk away broke a few weeks/months later.

Meanwhile, the experienced players are only getting smarter.  Their bid management algorithms are improving, their product merchandising mix is optimized, and they have better PPC managers.  These smart ones are able to improve the efficiency of their overall PPC buy (which can run into the millions per month); they take those efficiency gains (as seen in the reduced ‘cost per clicks’ and buy more keywords in the high-conversion campaigns (hence the big jump in paid clicks).  But the kick comes in the increased ‘traffic acquisition costs’: this isn’t just the experienced players killing the n00bs with no increase in cost to the overall market (e.g. it’s not a zero-sum game).  The experienced players are still competing with each other, and the price of traffic continues to increase at over 20% in one year.  In other words, the market for customer traffic as still not reached its equilibrium.

Google recently switched their free product feed service to a paid service.  This makes sense as the market matures: Google sees more money in the experienced PPC players, while the free-loading (literally) small players simply don’t have the budget to compete (and their products were gumming up the feed).

Google’s advertising market is maturing, and the revenue opportunity is still huge.

NOTE: I own stock in Google.  It’s not enough that this matters.

Established companies spend a lot on branding.  Over the weekend, I saw a completely amorphous 60-second spot during the Olympics that included 10 very expensive seconds of silence.  At that point, I knew what was coming at the end: a white Nike swoosh on an all black background.

Nike, Coca-cola, and luxury companies spend most of their advertising on brand-centric marketing: it’s not about the product, it’s about making the consumer feel good about the brand, which leads to them buying the product.  this is an advanced stage to get to, and very very tricky to accomplish online, especially given the ruthless elasticity of online customer acquisition through paid keywords, affiliate linking, and online marketplaces. These acquisition methods seem to reward extremely short-term marketing, while branding requires a more long-term conversation about values and quality with the customer.

Whatcha got?

Most online (pure-play) retailers spend the lion’s share of their marketing dollars on paid keywords– probably 65%-85% of the marketing budget takes the form of writing monthly checks to Google.  (If you’re smart, you’ll put those huge payments on an AmEx card, and at least pick up the frequent flyer miles.)  The rest goes to affiliate marketing commission payouts, usually going to Commission Junction (also owned by Google. Hrmmmm…).  Any scraps left over take the form of paying some college kids to screw around on social networks which are “free” but also “severely under-performing in terms of acquisition”.

For catalog-centric retailers, these acquisition methods work in the short-term: they have thousands of products for sale, so it just comes down to finding ways to get those products in front of a searching customer.  Any methodology would center around solving the problems of how to automate for thousands of products, how to write catchy 1-line product descriptions, how to manage the keyword bid level, and how to manage the price of the product.  There are some cool SAAS providers to answer each one of these problems.  Note, however, that all of these activities are focused on the product and the immediate sale.  This is sales, not marketing.

If a company decided to dedicate a portion of their precious keyword budget to link through to the About Us page, or some nice feel-good blog post about company values, then that would be brand marketing.  Unfortunately, all the automation and management techniques are hinged on the conversion rate or “return on ad spend (ROAS)” or “Cost as a Percentage of Sale (CAPS)”.  For feel-good branding, the immediate sales return is zero, thus the campaign would never bubble up in the keyword management software.  Affiliates only get paid when something gets sold, so they won’t carry it either.  Social networks are puny in terms of sales, so they’re no help either.

In short: there is no branding in acquisition.

What have you done for me lately?

So, where/how can an online retailer build brand?  As with any retail, it’s all in the experience.  Physical retailers have the luxury of painting the walls a certain color or installing some really nice marble in the entryway.  Online retailers have often taken this as written and focused on the page design, thinking that’s where the branding magic happens.  To some extent, design certainly influences brand value, but in the end, there are only 256 background colors available, and only a dozen or so fonts, so the options are a bit limited here.  Innovative design that leads to intuitive functionality has a much greater impact on brand, which is the obvious clue: Online branding is all about the experience.

Because the online customer experience must depend so much on the customer’s own will (she needs to actively click on something to even get to the website, then keep clicking on through to make any progress), online retailers cannot simply “brand” their website and hope to invoke any sort of value to the customer.  It’s all about the experience.  Specifically, it can be broken down to distinct phases:

  • Site design: first impressions.  Clean or muddled?  Bright or cluttered?  This phase of the experience lasts 3-4 seconds, tops.
  • Site navigation: intuitive or laborious?  Anticipating the customer, or shotgunning everything?  This phase lasts longer, and will be repeated 5-6 times by a serious customer.  This is the where she really starts to make up her mind whether or not she’s having a good experience, and thus if you’re a real brand or not.
  • Checkout: intuitive or laborious? Clean?  Do you trust the customer to know what she wants, or are you trying to squeeze more money out of her by pushing some crap at the last second?  Careful what you wish for: those additional incremental dollars may be costing you long-term brand value.
  • Fulfillment and call center: here’s where your brand sinks or swims.  Everything up until now has been acquisition and sales.  If you don’t deliver quickly, transparently, and honestly, then your brand value isn’t worth the cardboard it came in.

All competent online retailers know these steps, but have you viewed these steps in terms of your online brand value?  What would you do differently if you were to see each of these phases as they are relevant not to short-term acquisiton and sales, but long-term branding?

Calculating online brand value

Okay, so how can we actually calculate online brand value?  One of the nice things about online marketing is the plethora (aka flood, cascade, swamp, overwhelming onslaught) of data that is produced form each customer interaction.  The same math that is pushing online retailers to constantly chase acquisition might actually show some indicators on how we might be able to calculate online brand value.

Let’s imagine a case where two online retailers sell the exact same products.  One has a ‘strong brand’ and one has a ‘weak brand’, for whatever reasons (better purchasing experience, cross-channel exposure, superior email marketing, etc.). Proposed assumptions:

  1. The strong brand retailer will have lower acquisition costs because people recognize the domain when viewing the paid keywords
  2. The strong brand retailer will have a higher retention rate
  3. The strong brand retailer will have a higher percentage of organic traffic
  4. The weak brand retailer will spend more per keyword
  5. The weak brand retailer will have a higher percentage of sales through 3rd party marketplaces (e.g. Amazon, Ebay, Overstock)

From those assumptions we can actually build some math:

Total Brand Value = BrandValue(keyword) + BrandValue(organic) + BrandValue(retention), where:

  • BV(keyword) = [TotalKeywordSpend for position 1 or 2] – [TotalKeywordSpend for position 3 or 4]  Assume that you can acquire 1,000 customers/day spending $100 each, for a total gross revenue of $100,000 per day.  If you’re while being listed in position 1 or 2 will cost $18,500 for those keywords.  If you could be listed in position 3 or 4 and still get 1000 customers/day while spending only $10,000 (lower position = cheaper price), then congratulations, your brand is worth $18,500 – $10,000 = $8,500.
  • BV(organic) = OrganicTraffic * ConversionRate * AcquisitionMarketingSpend % of Sales  Assume that 1,000 people come to your site every day organically, and they convert at a rate of 2%, or 20 orders total.  With an Average order value of $100 per order, your organic traffic brought in $2,000 today.  Congratulations!  This isn’t the brand value, however.  The brand value is how much you didn’t have to spend on marketing to acquire those customers.  If you usually spend 15% of sales on keyword and affiliate marketing, then take the $2,000 in organic sales and multiply by 15% that you didn’t spend: $2,000 * 15% = $300.
  • BV(retention) = [RepeatTraffic * ConversionRate * AcquisitionMarketingSpend % of Sales] – EmailRetentionMarketingSpend  Similar to the BV(organic) equation, think of every retained customer that you only spent pennies sending an email as an opportunity where you didn’t have to spend dollars buying keywords.  If you’re getting 1,120 customers a day, and your retention rate is 12%, then 120 are coming in through retention and you’re having to pay to acquire the other 1,000 [see above].  Assume the same AOV of $100 and these retained customers are bringing $12,000 in gross sales.  Still assuming that the AcquisitionMarketingSpend is 15%, you would have normally spent $1,800 to acquire them.  Instead, you spent $50 emailing/retaining them.  Your retention brand value is $1,800 – $50 = $1,750.
  • So, in our example, TotalBrandValue = Keyword $8500 + Organic $300 + Retention $1,750 = $10,550 per day on a daily gross revenue of $114,000.

In this case, our ‘Online Brand Value’ can be estimated at $10,550 / $114,000 = .09254 or 9.2% of gross revenue.  As an online marketer, try running this math sometime.  Where is your total value as a percentage of revenue?  Is it increasing or decreasing?  There may be a Roche Limit minimum value to and online brand, below which, the Jovian gravity well of Amazon will soon swallow the minor players, but we’ll talk about that tomorrow.

Will E Coyote: definitely a maker.

Everything is Everything.  What is meant to be will be.

Lauren was probably speaking more towards her personal journey of acceptance and growth, but the phrase often comes to mind when I see ecommerce websites expand their categories and SKU counts.  It started, of course, when Amazon realized the leverage of SKU expansion and moved beyond books and into DVDs, CDs, and other bits of consumable media.  That all fits– media is media.  The stroke of genius came when Amazon realized they had a pretty kick-ass marketing engine and millions of personal preference profiles: why not sell patio gear, clothes, groceries, and weapons?  If Chuck Jones were re-doing Road Runner, he’d print Amazon on the side of all the gear.

Zappos learned the lesson the best: find a starting sector that appeals to _all_ customers, and then vector into additional sectors wherever purchasing capital, product feeds, and conversion rates allow.  Amazon chose books, Zappos went with shoes.  They both sell everything everywhere to everyone now.  Welcome to Costco, I love you. I noticed this most directly when I worked at Shoes.com: we saw our competitors like Shoebuy.com expand first into belts, bags, and other accessories, but soon enough they had watches, cute clothes, and anything else they could get their hands on.  We chose not to expand categories, because we thought it would water down the brand– the name “shoes.com” is kinda hard to wiggle away from (NOTE TO SELF: next time, pick a domain that’s easy to spell and generic enough to sell anything).

Where is ecommerce headed?  Will every online store become an online marketplace, selling everything and anything?  The technology for that is certainly in place: companies like Channel Advisor, Ixtens, and Marketfleet have product feeds canned and ready to throw onto your site.  It simultaneously empowers the online merchandising managers with a plethora of products and diminishes them by subtracting any need to be choosy: just throw them all on there, see which ones convert well, and have the robots promote hose to the homepage (I’ll be in my office drinking a mai-tai).

Nothing new here, really– all retail operations are tempted to expand categories in order to maximise the return on all that advertising in getting people thru the door or to click on the website.  The trick is to figure out which categories are wasteful and which ones are edifying.  Walmart’s answer was the Big Box, don’t worry about picking winners and losers, just get a bigger building (the end of gasoline-fueled suburbia may put an end to this method).  Department stores answered the problem by abrogating the category-choosing to the subleasing brands: everyone can buy floorspace in Macy’s, if you can afford the rent.  Online, there were no restrictions on real estate footprint, and brands are more than willing to pay for placement in the nice slots on the homepage.  It’s all about customer flow: online retailers that can manage the flow to the “right” categories will make all the money.  This is what powers the whole ecosystem around personalization software like Certona, Monetate, and Adobe.

These “omnitailers” are trying to sell everything to everyone.  If they’ve got a unique payment method (ebay, costco, or taobao), or if they’ve got enough money (Amazon or Walmart or Target), they can hinge their model on embracing the ubiquity.  For the rest of us, however, we must build some sort of brand.  The brand must be something to make the customer choose to buy that Webber Grill from us, instead of the 14 other places he can find it.

There’s another path here, I think: a whole class of websites have cropped up to go the exact opposite direction: the exclusive, the selected, the hand-made.  We all know Etsy, but there are many more like her.  I don’t mean the exclusive member-only daily-deal sites: those sites are just exploiting an artificial snobbery to invoke an illusion of luxury (all luxury is an illusion, but that’s another day’s topic).  I don’t want to try to sell everything to everyone everywhere– besides the sheer joy of volume, where’s the fun in that?  I want to sell stuff that’s cool to as many other cool people as I can.  The Makers are onto something.  We’re seeing new product launches done exclusively via Kickstarter projects.  Wanna be cool?  Build your own tube amplifier using a cigar box for the case and some arduino controls.  These people actually relish the intent-slow process of manufacturing (latin for “create by hand”), and the realization of something unique.  Big margins if you can do it right, but not a lot of money overall to pay the staff.  There’s incredible branding in this scene, but not a lot of volume (by intent).

Which path will your website follow?  The Omnitailer, or the Slow Maker?  Is there a way to blend them?

 


I’m not a licensed comedian, so I may be off-base on this but, I think the essential ingredient in any bit is the unexpected twist. The Stooges level of violence, Road Runner’s defiance of the laws of physics, Graham Chapman trying to use a banana as a lethal weapon, Beavis’ unexpected wit when hopped up on sugar, and The Onion: they take the ordinary, tilt everything 5-92 degrees one way or the other, and present it with a straight face. It’s the same reason you cannot tickle yourself: you know where your hands are going to be, so there’s no surprise, no betrayal of expecation, no twist = no laughing. The glimmers of real comic genius were actually when we could see the joke coming, but the rhythm had become unexpected (e.g. Lou Costello anticipating “I Don’t Know’ is on 3rd, but having no clue on how he got there).

April Fool’s Day used to be the day one could get away with the absurd in the office: tilt the boss’s desk with small stones under two legs, put sand in the sugar dispenser, stretch saran wrap across the toilet seat (one I’ve yet to try, but have a mortal fear of falling victim– something I probably shouldn’t publish here on a public blog).

Used to be. The Internet killed April Fool’s Day.

Now, thanks to the Internet dissolving any formality around advertising, news content, or coherent plot-driven storytelling, we can no longer distinguish any clear line of demarcation between The Goof and The True. Fark.com, Cracked, BoingBoing, LaughingSquid, FunnyOrDie, and any other of the army of ‘absurdist news’ items out there are just as legitimate as NBC, CBS, and certainly carry more weight than foxnews.com. Come April 1st, everyone simply goes bonkers, and nothing is trustable. The problem is: we’re expecting it, and thus we gain no comedy value out of it. Conan bought Mashable? Of course I don’t believe it, but all I can do is wonder which media partner sold out to which? Did Mashable buy Conan with a pile of Cash, or did Conan come over in order to promote his show? No actual comedy traded hands– they just shared needles. Any “respectable” news outlet (like the Washington Post) that used to be able to fool my grandfather sitting in his study with the actual print version is now just another random click from news.google.com alongside the goofy cat photos and fake UFO landings.

Meh. Thanks to the Internets, every day is April Fool’s.

Golden Gate Buddha, from DieselDemon's Flickr (found via an article on Venturebeat.com discussing social media, oddly enough)

George Carlin used to have a bit about how people spent their whole lives accumulating a big pile of stuff. Our houses were really just all our stuff with a wooden covering to keep the rain out. Our stuff defined our lives. Our lives were just a big pile of stuff. Well, congratulations– we can now become much better people with Pinterest.

If you haven’t seen it yet, Pinterest is a big public cork board where everyone can pin up and categorize their dream items. Do you see a cat-themed sausage maker that would be purrfect (and ironicaliciously hip at the same time) for your dream kitchen? Pin it. See an ab-crunching device that doubles as a cocktail mixer? Pin it. See the girl in the bikini that has the body you’ll get when you use the ab-crunching martini-o-matic? Pin her. See that mansion overlooking the ocean on a clifftop with palm trees and tigers? Yeah, pin that too. After all, you’ve got such immaculate taste, it’s only a matter of time before that mansion is yours right? Good thing you’ve got the kitchen appliances all sorted out, and you’ll have a washboard stomach while you lounge by the pool.

I’m not bitter, I promise. I actually make my bones selling stuff, just like everyone else. The part that I don’t quite get is how people can be so unabashedly publicly shameless with their avarice for other people’s stuff or stuff they don’t possess yet. But then again, if I question this too much, maybe I’ll have to turn in my Marketing License. Shopping, or the seductive foreplay of window shopping, is inherently enjoyable on some level. We all do it. Pinterest has figured out the right balance of stuff-pr0n with images and text (96% images, 4% wordy words), categorization to appeal to our self-esteem that we are good organizers, and the illusion that we’re not bragging (our friends follow us, we don’t go around shouting this stuff on Facebook, for dog’s sake).

Speaking of which, from a “social commerce” point of view, Pinterest may have Facebook by the short and curlies: Facebook is busy having to babysit 800 million insecure extroverts with their daily aphorisms, child-bragging, kitteh lulz, and political diatribes shimming for Ron Paul. Who’s got time to shop on Facebook? I’ve got some pithy retorts to these Ron Paul kitteh look-a-likes, dangit.. No wonder everyone’s drawing down their Facebook commerce sites. Pinterest, on the other hand, doesn’t care one whit about my emotional state, my edumacation, my friends, my social status. They only care about my self-perceived pile of stuff: real or aspirational. It’s a much easier and direct line to draw from that pile of stuff, throw in some affiliate links, sponsored photos, or whatever, and every retailer on the planet can make a little coinage on Pinterest. After all, everyone that pinned my products has already told me they like them. I just need to close the deal with a promo code and a check-out button. Easy-peasy lemon squeezy.

Take a look at your pins. Is that really you? If so, congratualtions, you’ve mapped out your path to sattori.

Drove to Austin. First things first: find an apartment. (okay, the real first thing was to eat some Tex-Mex, but anyway…) We found what seemed to be a great place, the Marquis at Barton Creek (minus 10 points for a bit overly pretentious name). Nice apartment, close to work, garage attached, decent rate. We applied. We were denied. Their application website said that we had criminal backgrounds.

What?

I asked for details from the poor sap behind the reception desk. He had an honest face, but he had no idea. I began to get a bit frustrated. Flustered, he gave up his bosses email address, and the name of the company they use to screen applicants. I called that company, and spoke with an equally honest an equally clueless tech. She stated that their application, for privacy reasons, doesn’t use the SSN for applicants (even though we entered it into the website, along with our drivers license numbers, birthdays, and other sundry bits of private data). The screening process only uses NAME and BIRTHDAY. Awesome.

Statistically, the NAME “Jenkins” is the 95th most popular name in the United States. According to the US Census, there are 213,737 people in the country with this name. The name “David” is the 15th most popular name, with 1 in 145 people, or just over 2 million in the US. You can prove this yourself, I bet you’ve got at least 4 “Dave”s or “David”s in your Facebook (and tell the truth, the “Dave”s are more relaxed than the “David”s, right?). Wolfram Alpha won’t tell me how many “David Jenkins” there are, but just guessing from the 1 in 145 applied to the 213,737 gives us 1474. Culturally, David is popular with the Welsh, so I’m betting it’s a little higher than that. Let’s figure there are at least 2000 “David Jenkins” in the United States (I personally know of 4 others, including my cousin).

Now for the BIRTHDAY. According to the Birthday problem, chances are that if you’ve got more than 23 people in the room, two of them have the same birthday. With 2000 of us, I would guess that there are at least 20 Dave Jenkins who share my birthday. Can you see where this is headed? I’m pretty sure that one of my brothers out there has boosted a car, knocked over a gas station, or perhaps even done something far far worse.

The Marquis at Barton Creek, with their half-baked screening process, is relying on incredibly poor statistics, and a flawed model. Legally, IMHO, they’re on sketchy ground with this. Luckily for us, we found another (better) place to live, which used a proper screening process with SSN, confirmed that we don’t have criminal backgrounds, and granted us a lease.

LESSON: beware the poorly made screening application. Before entering data into something large/important (like a mortgage, rental contract, or auto purchase), confirm what _exactly_ they’re going to do with your data, and how the pieces fit together.

Deep in the Heart of Texas!

Yumiko and I are moving to Austin Texas this month. I’ve accepted a job with a dotcom there. I want to send out all our love and appreciation to everyone we’ve met while here in The Lou. For what it’s worth, I’ll be one closer to the Alamo.

We’ve got some things that we’re not going to take with us. Some bookshelves, a glass computer desk, some books. Please let us know if you’d like them.

and another:

Good luck with the epistomological questions, Siri-chan. source: siricrazy.com

The second thing pundits exclaimed about Siri, the voice-controlled search bot on iPhone 4s, was that it poses a real threat to Google’s business model, and puts Apple as the company that could possibly unseat the Emperor. (the first thing everyone said was “Squee! New Apple thingy!”)

Pish-posh.  Apple’s Siri is no more threat to Google as the iPhone itself, a Kinect, or a new keyboard.  Siri is an input device, that’s it.  Yes, it’s “smarter” than just a keyboard, and possibly more nuanced than a Kinect, but it’s still an interface point.  “Ah!” they say, “Siri doesn’t pull from Google results, only Wikipedia, Wolfram Alpha, and Yelp“, and therein lies the perceived threat to Google.  This is premature, and backwards.  Those sources for Siri are all curated (I don’t like how that word is starting to get overused, but it’s accurate here) query results.  Wikipedia, WA, and Yelp have all been personally tuned in to the “correct” result by some crowd or learned scholars or something.  Google is just spitting up whatever it’s robots think is a best fit.  Siri, as a product of Apple’s obsessive devotion to quality, would only want to touch curated sources.  Fair enough.

That misses the point, however.  There’s nothing stopping Google from introducing some sort of curation process.  They certainly have the data to start something– they just need the editors to straighten things out for them.  I would submit that Google hasn’t been successful in this crowdsourcing recruitment because either: (a) they haven’t felt the need because their robots were smart enough, or (b) crowds wouldn’t feel to jazzed up about helping a company with a stock price of over $600/share.  For point (a) Siri now shows them that there may be a need to introduce humans alongside the robots.  For point (b) Google could easily part with some of all that GoogleAd money to an army of curators through some sort of affiliate micropayment scheme.  Think DMOZ, but now actually getting paid for all those slavish hours you devoted to sorting out Land of the Lost episodes.

As those data improves those results, why wouldn’t Siri start including Google in her decision-making?  Siri is not a threat to Google– she’s just a bit of a reminder they need a new suit and tie while she patiently waits for them.  Eventually, Siri will need Google just as much as the rest of us.

FULL DISCLOSURE: I own, like, 50 shares of GOOG, or something, so I’m rolling in money.

Jon Evans raises a good point over at TechCrunch: the identity wars are over (winner:facebook), and the ‘reputation war’ has begun.  This is a war not of actual reputations, but of online properties that can best establish, facilitate, and most importantly score and compare reputations among so-called “experts”.  Quora is a popular place for this, and it is certainly gaining its fair share of astroturfers who are hoping to inflate their online reputation, but it’s also got a decent line of real experts who are stepping up and answering questions.  I am mildly surprised by the quality of answers.

Continuing on my earlier model of viewing these different social networks as strata (or layers) that  build on top of each other, I would agree with Mr Evans’ point that the identity layer is largely established now, and we are beginning to move up into a new reputation layer.  It’s not enough to simply evaluate someone by the company he/she keeps, it’s now how and where they demonstrate their answers to a barrage of questions.  This used to be what blogs were for, but no one has time to read  those anymore, or at least the format is switching from blowhards like me pushing answers in a blog like this, to answers getting pulled by responding to specific questions from the masses.

Back in the day, we only had our Slashdot scores and loginIDs to go by, but the world quickly moved beyond simple geekery, and that doesn’t hold much wight anymore.  Klout is a naked popularity contest– but on the Internet, what else is there?

Yahoo, you know I love you...

Yahoo! is in play, again.  Microsoft has been rumored to renew it’s offer, Google may be lurking around, and Alibaba, the China ecommerce marketplace / payment method / sourcing B2B giant, has also been very public about it’s wanting to buy Yahoo!.  In my opinion, Alibaba may offer the best path forward for Yahoo.  My take on the reasons why:

Microsoft – Meh. Microsoft has been desperate to get something to counteract Google’s rise.  As the world moves ever closer to full-cloud operations, the desktop apps become more and more irrelevant.  Yes, people will be using Outlook and MSWord for years to come, but that’s just inertia, it’s not growth.  Bing was a good shot, but it’s still getting 3rd place behind Google and Yahoo for keyword buys from companies.  If MS could acquire Yahoo, they would increase their share of keyword revenue, and might get enough core revenue to start making something.  However, this doesn’t really do anything for Yahoo– it just gets them bought out and assimilated into Redmond.  Meh.

Google – Nope. I doubt the Federales would allow this one: Google already controls possibly 80% of the online advertising revenue out there– if they bought Yahoo, that share could surge up to 90%.  Monopoly (funny how companies are getting to that status faster and faster…).  Here again, Yahoo would just become a brand within Google, and probably quietly left to ebb away into nothing as users were migrated over to GMail, G+, and Google Apps.

Alibaba – Interesting. Yahoo already owns 46% of Alibaba.  There’s a certain I Ching symmetry/irony that could come if Alibaba were to buy out their own “father”.  If Alibaba were to get Yahoo, it would give them a solid beachhead to take all their platforms developed in China to bring to international markets: Tmall, Taobao, Alipay, and Alibaba B2B would gain a US-based staff and org in one fell swoop.  But the important piece that Jerry Yang should consider, IMHO, is how Yahoo! might survive and grow into something sustainable: Yahoo! would likely disappear inside Microsoft or Google, but it stands a good chance of staying on– and perhaps thriving– as a branded portal inside the Alibaba group: as a company, Jack Ma (CEO of Alibaba) tends to segment out new markets, pour money in as needed, and then interconnect companies as much as possible.  Yahoo! enjoys strong portal loyalty with its users.  It’s a decent news aggregator for people, it’s got a kick-ass web mail client (Zimbra).  With all of these, Alibaba could suddenly gain a portal face for it’s considerable marketplace engine in Tmall and Taobao, as well as an ability to link Alipay’s payment services for micropayment content delivery as ipads and tablets push more and more rich content behind paid firewalls.

© 2010 Dave Jenkins contact me via twitter @davejenk1ns or via email blog at davejenkins dot com Suffusion WordPress theme by Sayontan Sinha